Research

So......the systems

I've been meaning to write a post for around 3 weeks now but as you can appreciate I have been very busy. Today looks a quiet time so let's give it a go.

Okay, so as you know those in the daspunter group have been following my pre games/in plays/whatever since inception and they have been based on gamblers gut instinct. I still firmly believe that you can develop over time an instinct for when to enter markets etc, but the bottom line is that some people have an inane sense of timing and instinct and others less so. However, after around a year or so I began to consider whether or not there are certain systems people could use without my input so that they could at least start looking at matches differently. I will say that this seems to have had mixed success; some people are 'getting' it, others less so.

From a personal perspective a previous trial system of the fhg response system (I'll get to all the jargon later) yielded 63u. My latest trials using several systems has yielded a staggering 149.27u not including the units on yesterday (at a stretch I'm guessing 15-20u). The whole set of trials this far at £20 per unit (sometimes higher if I feel a higher confidence) has yielded over £4k then. To say I have been impressed is an understatement. People like Zappa, Andy, Janar, Paul who you may or may not know within daspunter certainly are getting a feel for it. In fact, those mentioned are even being bolder sometimes and taking positions/odds at 4s, 5s, 6s and 7s.

Before I go any further I want to just clarify something as always in anything there are grey areas. By SYSTEMS I mean that I have templates and that nothing is 100%. They are loose outlines which guide my entry points. I don't believe also that you can simply carpet bomb every single game that meets the criteria from Bulgaria Division 5 to Holland U18s to Women's Internationals. From the data gathered all the system(s) is designed to do is to try and take positions based on likelihood of event occurring combined with the greatest possible bang for buck in terms of odds. Let me repeat that....all the system(s) do is provide a position on the likelihood on an event occurring at the best possible odds. The systems are based on risk-reward.

Let's first go into the drawbacks of the systems.

1) If you apply the systems literally, there is little or no room more manoeuvre. If applied literally you take positions paced purely on specific points in time even though you may think that the event may occur/not occur as an instinct. Like I say though, the systems are designed to at least get you thinking about potential soft spots in games if nothing else.

2) You'll pull your hair out at least 3 times a week. The systems are based on probability v odds on a good day you'll see 20u land and everything hit. A bad day will see a whole host of 47/48 minute goals the wrong side of the half and you'll be down 8u. Believe me, if you don't like losing bets then please don't do it. There are bound to be streaks of losses as we are essentially betting on narrow time periods.

3) It will take instinct to suss out which system(s) you should apply through a day or if any. I am a FIRM believer in gambling momentum. People can laugh all they want about Gambler's Fallacy bujt from where I sit and have been sitting momentum/luck plays a huge, huge part in gambling. I firmly believe that the only real difference between the mug punter and a pro gambler is the intuition of when to stop and when to be more aggressive. Over the years I have heightened this 'feeling' and am getting better at it. To say that I have anywhere mastered it would be a foolish statement. I tend to still gamble longer into the bad periods than necessary, something which I continue to work on. How many times have we placed that first bet of the day, and for a whole chain of snowballing events to conspire against us throughout the day.

Gambler's Fallacy would have you believe that every event must be taken in it's on right; I have nothing to disprove this only to say that in my experience (and with expensive hindsight at times) I can normally tell when I should have stopped or change tactics or even sensed early doors that just simply this is not my day. Yesterday WAS my day. The systems literally couldn't have worked better for 75% of the time and yielded 20u+. Today may be different. Every day I wake up it's a new slate; tomorrow never happened. After every good day I am immediately cautious the next. Knowing when to hit these systems is 90% the battle.

4) You have to have an open mind about odds and entry points If you are someone that studies each bet with meticulous planning and are looking for that one steady stream of wining bets don't do this. This involves embracing losses. You need to think of this as basically trading games in bulks of 10/20 matches to get some return at the end of it. Once again...e are betting using narrow time frames at odds of 3.00+ to 5.00s. If you seriously think that these are going to land all the time then really....

All I will say is that how many days when I was doing those rolling accas did 1.50 shots drift to 2.50/3.00? How many times do your won personal evens bets hit 3s and 3.50s? I will touch on odds and perception a little later. However, I now firmly believe that the in built 'fear' of high odds is what holds the average punter back and that the safety net of sub 1.80 odds is just an illusion.

So let's move onto the systems that I've touched on as there is still some confusion as to what they are

System 1
A FHG (a first half goal)
The Criteria (entry point on or around 28-32 minutes minimum)
The first half goal system is one based purely on whether or not you think there is to be a fhg. It's as simple as that. Generally speaking, I like there to be at least 4/5 shots on goal, preferably at least one team has to have had 3 by minute 25. This is not entirely essential but more of a guide that at least there may be some action in the game. I would advise at this point to not just use the Bet365 shots data as this is bollocks most of the time. I tend to cross reference this data with Flashscores data, so either have this in your tabs or get the app on your phone. You also need to be aware that different leagues have different shot propensity. Romania for example may show 20 plus shots for a goal, Russia may need 4 shots for a goal; it's all relative. However, if we go by the mantra that around 5/6 shots on target is the mean shots required before a goal this is not a bad starting point. I also stress SHOTS ON TARGET as opposed to shots.

Shots off target (especially in terms of 5/6/7/8 may indicate that the opposition team is in fact defending pretty well and that there are little clear cut chances. I'm thinking Iceland here where they will literally shoot from anywhere. May I also at this time say that it is probably easier to trust the rball guys slightly better with better known games. These may be televised and so the pressure to not make up the data may be more. You can only imagine who does the Czech Women U21 v Poland rball. Also use some common sense...if it's Barcelona v Getafe and Barce have had only 2 shots on goal then it may still be a reasonable time to enter.

The reasoning behind the 28-32 is that I believe this is the best place to enter the market based on odds v probability. So in essence, what this system says is that any fhg that you fancy in the match, should be taken between 28-32. Here is a very rough sketch of some of the findings although I have been concentrating more on response goals lately.



This yielded 12.7 units with an average goal time of 37. As always, the difficulty has been in the data recruiting bit is stockpiling enough data which may in term affect results. The figure is probably nearer 20-25u lately as haven't filled in last few days wins/losses. Here are the examples...








SYSTEM 2
THE RESPONSE GOAL (another first half goal taken between 32-37)
One of my favourites as it relies much less on having to predict shots and accuracy etc etc. Quite simply, the first half response goal is any goal scored after an initial first half goal. Here is a sample



The astonishing thing here is the amount of times a goal is scored on or around 42. The average time when a goal is scored in response to a first half goal IF the bet lands is around minute 42. The obvious question will be 'hey Chris well why don't you just bet on minute 40?!?! LOLZ' to which I'll reply I see no reason not too, only it gives you more chance by giving yourself a little more margin like say on minute 37. The problem here is this; the minutes 32-37 are absolutely critical in that it seems that response goals are either scored closer to 32/33 or they are left to 42/43/44. This means that the obvious viable option of hitting bang in the centre is a little redundant because it is neither hitting the earlier winners or being optimal for the late ones. This is very frustrating. So it seems that the optimal entry point I would argue is either on minute 32/33 and take more wins at less odds, or take on 37 and take less wins but greater odds. Here are some examples...






















(A slight cheat and not strictly a system play, but instinct said yes and there was a lot of shot data on both 365 and more importantly flash scores)

There were a whole host of others yesterday. This was one from this morning....








Two examples of a too early goal.

So I guess an obvious question is why the 8-28 minute mark? Well really early goals in my studies (5 or less) have shown that in a large number of cases there is either a very quick goal soon nullifying any other potential value or that there are no further goals as teams park the bus. By leaving it til minute 8 (that's minute 7.00-7.59) you are at least getting the game underway and has a little more time the game to develop. Don't ask me why it just seems that super early goals a lot of the time fail to get another one. I also started with 7-27 but changed to 8-28 because that is in fact the minutes 7-27 (if it states 8 then obviously the goal was scored IN minute 7 ie 7.23, 7.45 etc).

Again there are obvious caveats. These systems are GUIDES rather than bullet proof. But as a general rule you are looking for a home goal preferably between minutes 8-28 or an away goal. The next bit triggering between 32-37 is down entirely as to how long you want to wait and your strategy. More wins at less odds, or vice versa. What I will say is that there is quite an obvious escalation of odds prices between 35-37 which gives significant value. 'But hey Chris, I saw a game yesterday which had a goal after 3 and a goal 42 lolzzzzz', my reply...yes it does happen believe it or not. This is football. 'But I thought you said...' I reply this is just a template. 'What so this doesn't happen every game lozzzz CONFUZED Chris'. I reply, no...it doesn't happen every game. That would be stupid. We are in effect betting on small 8 minute time slots. 'But Chris....', I reply whatever, take or leave it. It's just throwing ideas out there and trying to find the optimal points v odds of entry.

SYSTEM 3
ANOTHER RESPONSE GOAL (a second responsegoal ie a third goal in the first half. This is to be taken on minute 30 after two goals between 8 and 30. )

System 3 is a further response goal to goals between 8-30 ie a goal scored on 13, 24 and then entry point at 30). I think this works best with the home side scoring first. Okay, so why 30, why not 32 or 37 like the others? Because I am thinking that the propensity for further goals and the activity may see another one slightly quicker. Again experiment at your leisure, but this was small batch...



There are in fact another 8/9u to add to this, but haven't been arsed.

Here's an example....



SYSTEM 4
THE FHG FAIL (this is a first half goal fail system, which looks to reback at the HT goal line if the first half goal response system fails. Works better with game state 1-0, but does work at any other system (ie 2-0 but no third in fhg). 

Still tinkering with this one, but the success rate in covering the HT line IF there is no further fhg (or fhgs) is around 70% plus. That means that IF the fhg system fails, whatever the line is a HT is covered more than 2/3 (66%) of the time.

Here's an example...



In this example, my fh response goal failed, so I covered with a second half over 2.5,3 bet.

This system aims to give you a break even or obviously a -2u loss if they both fail. But at 70% coverage, I'll take my chances with it. We are in effect looking to break even on the potential win first half of odds of 3-3.50 (if the response bet was taken on minute 37).

This morning...



HT line was over 2.5 2.20. Covered nicely.

This is primarily a system based on the fact that a huge percentage of first half response system bets, IF they fail, fail by narrow nargins (ie a goal straight after HT on minute 47/48).

SYSTEM 5
THE 82+ GOAL (quite simply, any goal after 82). 
This is a little impulsey, but I have found that the sweet spot for taking late goals is around 82. This is where odds may range from anything from 2.50s to 3.20s to higher.

An example this morning









This one actually had the classic fhg after 30 too at 2.60

SYSTEM 6
THE ROLLER BET SYSTEM (taking over 0.5 at 1.50 and over 1 at the same time and then again at over 0.5 evens)
This is a system based on the roller stuff I did a while back and looks to back in three possible places, if all there. If the game is 0-0 then it would be a back at over 0.5 1.50 and over 1 at around evs/2.2, and then again IF the match hits over 0.5 evs. Potential return is 2.5u if the latter hits and there is 2 goals. Potential loss is 3u if 0-0. This also works with games at any game state (ie 1-0 and taking over 1.5 and 2 lines and waiting for over 1.5 evs, but seems to work best at 0-0)



An example would be...



Wouldn't have been surprised if the over 0.5 evs actually hit here and so would have bagged all 2.5u (ie the over 0.5 at 1.50 the over 1 at 2.00 and the over 0.5 at evens).

Another example...


Again, +2.5u.


So there we have it, I use these 6 systems in conjunction which each other and they have done pretty well. Now some pointers.

Every day is different. Each day you will find that some systems work better than others. Other days, none may not work. Yesterday for example I tested the water with the first half response system (1-0ers) and it seemed to do brilliantly through the day. Taking average odds at 3.50 on minute 37 can see you place 12 bets losing 8 and still be up 2u.  And this is the mindset that you simply have to have IF you want to give this a go.



Some Notes.

The biggest thing when using these is to try and feel the rhythm and temperature of the day. If it's your day you will pick up momentum and you will see everything fitting into place. You will choose the correct games and things will work out. Quite simply if it is not your day then there is no point in fleecing it til you use all of the previous days gains up. Once more....all these systems are designed to do based on the research I have done, is base the entry points at the best possible odds versus a reasonable probability of landing.

The systems seem to work best also with mens games (ie seniors) and in better more recognized leagues, because they seem to either know the importance of the HT game state and try and influence the game before HT or that they seem to try and even things up and therefore likely to get countered too for another one.

If you do go through a trough of a few games losses look to leave it for around 4/5 hours to get to the next batch of games. So if you've had no success in the morning try the afternoon games or night games, don't keep betting on whatever the next batch of games are on 365. In fact, I can normally tell very early what sort of day it is likely to be. You pick the wrong games, and see others come in. Just leave it if you feel this happening.

There are also times where things will just go against you. Penalty misses, disallowed goals etc etc. I had a run last week where it felt like literally every goal was being disallowed and every penalty missed. These normally come in batches of days where literally nothing works. At this stage reduce stakes to an absolute bare minimum IF you do want to keep betting. What I generally do is not stop betting altogether but quite literally reduce my stakes from £50, to £20 and if I still feel it ain't happening I'll reduce them to hardly anything, £2...whatever. It's just so that I keep my eye in with the rhythms of the games within a time frame that I think is a negative period. When I feel that things are going for me I may increase the stake to £100 like a I did with Rangers another fhg yesterday and Freiburg ('But hey Chris, that technically wasn'y a system play lolllzzz?!!?!' Yes it wasn't a system bet I know, but I just felt there was going to be another one)

Like I say, I am a huge huge believer in a days momentum; the key is managing it. Every day is different. Wake up after a good day with the absolute fear of dread of the next until you can see/sense or pick up some momentum. Don't fight it. The systems are designed with a view of making profit over 100 bets at a times not instant profits over 3/4 bets. Sometimes nothing happens for days on end. You are literally wining peanuts. And then you'l' find a day where you hit 20+ units and all systems seem to fire. What saves you on the drought days IS THE ODDS YOU TAKE because of the entry points meaning you only have to win 25-30% of bets to break even.

The other IMPORTANT thing to remember is that every day is different not only in terms of momentum but in terms of the fixture set. Saturdays and Sundays may be great for the systems, and then you wonder why Monday is so crappy because your betting Ukraine kids or League Three. Remember, I cannot produce a system or set of systems which caters for absolutely every variable there is. We are after all betting on a game of football. Again, try and find some leagues that you are comfortable with.

The last thing, even if the system plays are not for you or they just don't seem to work for you, at least keep in mind the sort of timings and entry points that these give to maximize your returns. Even if you don't 100% stick to the parameters then at least use them as guides to show where the likely timings of goals may be.

Finally, I don't even know if this is for some. It is just something that I want to try and leave behind which doesn't rely on me guiding you. I am still a huge believer in flexibility and instinct, but that is something that I cannot pass to you. Everybody is different, everybody sees each game differently and perhaps what I take for granted at what I perceive you lot to be looking for in games is different to what you are actually looking it. My bets are based on thousands of hours looking at lines and trends and so I cannot possibly expect everyone else to be looking at the same games etc, although I do think that a lot who follow are definitely getting the hang of the games and the timings.

Also YOU CANNOT WIN EVERY DAY. We are betting on narrow windows to increase the odds. If I hit a 20u day, I can expect the next couple of days to be break evens or even 2/3u lost next day and the same the next. Then perhaps we hit an 8u day. It goes up and down with the emphasis on up during the very good days.


Some theories, tactics and strategies. 

I have been meaning to write a blog post for a while having had numerous requests if I could give some insight as to how I bet in play, specifically with regards to football. So as promised, here it is.

So where to start......there is so much to cover that I'm not sure I can even try to categorize things or put them in some sort of order that makes sense but here we go anyway. 

The first thing to remember is that this is the way that I do things. These are my thoughts/feelings/impulses when I bet in play. They are based on years of experience stored somewhere in my brain that I draw upon for future punts. These are thoughts based on years and years of looking at lines, their movements and sensing the happenings in each match. What I look for and feel, will be different to your perspective on in play, but nevertheless, here they are.

MINDSET
The first thing to get clear in your mind is that betting in play is a totally different proposition to betting pre game. It's my belief that the bookmakers are pretty decent in their pre game prices and that it is much harder to successfully win long term betting pre game football than in play. With this in mind, it was primarily why I started looking at betting in play all those years ago to try and find an edge over the books. So what is in play, what are you looking to accomplish and how should you approach it?

Where bookmakers may have the edge over the punter with their pre game prices, it is more difficult for them to have an edge in play. How many times for example have you bet on a 2.5 overs game, seen 20 minutes of nothingness, to get to 0-0 HT,  and then two late goals sees your pre game punt fall short by 1? The problem of betting pre game can be seen in its entirety just 10 minutes after kick off, where a punter may have bet an over 2.5 chance at 1.65 (£13 profit if won from a £20 bet) rather than the over 2.5 2.00 punt (£20 profit from a £20 punt) after the 10 minutes have elapsed. This £7 difference in this example is why the bookmakers in my opinion win long term over your average punter and why betting in play gives you the most value and the fairest chance when versing the books. If the punter wins in this instance, it is my belief that the bookmaker has won. To continue to bet anything than less than evens odds over the course means the game is skewed in their favour before you've even begun.

You may retort back with 'oh but what if there is a goal in the first five minutes', and that is a reasonable and just argument. You'll find that throughout this post there will be numerous 'but what if' moments that could counter what I believe. But what I am interested in when I bet in play, is putting as many factors in my favour as possible.

TWO WAYS
FLEXIBLE
From my point of view, there are two avenues in which to approach in play betting. The first is a very versatile approach where you punt impulsively and instinctively. In this situation there is no regard for how many goals have been scored in the game or any particular time you are looking for. You could fancy something going over 0.5 with 20 minutes to go, or something at HT with a 1-0 game state. This system is completely dependent on letting each and every game 'pan out' and trying to find edges within each game. Within this framework I try to leave the game go to at least HT, preferably 0-0 going into the 50th minute or so before taking a look. If a goal is scored say on minute 20 of the match (just an example) and we're approaching minute 50 or so, then I'd be inclined to check out the prices of goal line 2 and goal line 1.5. An example would be as follows -

Ordinarily, there would be no need for me to touch this pre game. Both teams had a relatively low scoring ratio and it looked a bit meh to be honest. However, an Iraq first goal in around minute 20, then an Iraq sending off just before HT piqued the interest.The goal line 2 was on offer before the half at around evens, and then at around minute 49/50 the goal line 1.5 could be had for around 1.70ish I believe. So these would have been two points I would checked only because the game had 'panned out'. Circumstances within each game. As it turned out, Iraq scored soon after. The game finished 1-1, so the goal line 2 evens would have pushed and the goal line 1.5 1.70 would have won.

So what did I look for here? Well I want to have some sort of gap. As soon as a goal is scored, just think of a bottle slowly filling up with water, and the need to hit that just before the water spills over the top (ie the next goal). There was sufficient things happening here to suggest that I would take a position here. Around thirty minutes had gone since the first goal, obviously a goal scored, a red card before the break, and a more than reasonable price on both goal line 2 and goal line 1.5 (at the time).

Many people use the Bet365 stats using this system to gauge the likelihood of a goal. Again though, you have to use this as a reference point only hand in hand with other stats at your disposal (form going into the match and likelihood of goals), together with what you perceive as the current match situation. Once again, 365 stats are great as an indication but remember that one league and one teams 20 shots for a goal may be another leagues 3 shots for a goal. These stats also pay no indication to shot accuracy, shot distance and I also believe that shots blocked count as shots off target.

Using this approach you will also be looking for games which seemingly have no logic in relation to pure stats alone. Some games just escalate and throw the form book out of the window. You may for example, see a favourite going one nil down early. At this point you want to try and hit the optimal time which you think goals will come down the line in a fightback. There are other games which just escalate and there is goal after goal after goal. Like this one.

Here you could keep taking the over first half goals. Even at goal 7, over 8 was evs, then over 8.5 was evens, and so on and so forth. You can basically try and catch the lines out. Shrewd punters would have won their days winnings on a match like this alone. So always be aware of these games which I'd label 'goalflash games'. Other games like this may be youth games for example or friendlies that match two teams with hugely different skill sets. Shrewdies would have hit this yesterday as news circulated that Brondby were playing an under srength side in this friendly.

But these are the easy diamonds which come along not as frequently.

So what factors must you look for when betting this impulse way. Well gaps in the time is one I've touched upon. Particularly between a first goal being scored and then a 30 minute or so gap. Others would include the skill sets of both sides and the propensity to come back. Obviously though, teams which excel in scoring (Salzburg, Munich etc) will see the lines be higher and so you have to gauge what you perceive as value and the optimal time to hit.Not that I don't bet with goals already being scored in the match before half time, but I do like the no goals being scored as that bottle is about to overflow. Here are some examples -

Again, I must stress that I do punt with different game states with different goals scored. (ie 2-2 with 40 left, 1-0 with ten left, 3-1 with forty left) but primarily I tend to favour games with no goals scored in them to take a position, or with one scored in them already...UNLESS you see snowball game like that Afjord game above where there was goal after goal after goal.

Using this method then (flexible approach) you are looking really not to take a game too early, and to let the game unfold and the stats influence your decision making, whether that be the 365 stats or the pre game stats of what is likely to come. Something like Arsenal being 0-0 at HT to Burnley for example should get the impulses tingling. If you can get say 20 minutes or so to half an hour 0-0 with a team like Salzburg, again, all things considered, it's worth a look.

So this is the flexible approach where you have no real point that you intended to enter the market, but rather you let the game unfold and decide to react.This I'm afraid is more difficult to try and teach; it very much depends on your experiences and your aptitude at reading game situations in play. This I'm afraid comes more or less from months and months and months if not years and years of seeing line movements and watching games. HOWEVER....the more that you follow, the more knowledge you bag in your brain to carry onto future situations. It's why I primarily bet goals and not next goal or teams to win. Too many times I've seen the ridiculous happen. Too many times I've seen team A have 13 scoreless shots to the oppos one on target which scores. Too many times I've seen a 1.20 shot beaten 3-0. The list goes on.

MORE SYSTEMATIC
The second way is to try and stick to key points in a game to bet. Generally I look at three points (ish, as nothing is set in stone). One is the time between say around 30 and 35 where the goal line may be around 2 evens for higher pre game lines, or around 1.5 2.00, or earlier/later depending on where the goal line 2/1.5 evens is set.. The benefit of this is trying to find the optimal point before the first goal in the first half and getting one or two just before half time. We use this on a philosophy that the first goal in matches on average is around the 30-40 minute (across mainstream leagues anyway). The second entry point is bang on half time, preferably 0-0 HT. And the other is around the 63-67 mark 0-0 where lines may be around over 0.5 2.00 and over 1 3.00-4.00 depending on the game. I look for late goals here. A lot of the time I may take the goal line 2 with a view of also taking the 1.5s. This, in certain circumstances gives me the chance to get a goal in before HT, with a second bet on the 1.5 evens on, around, or just after HT.

So what factors do I try and look for when taking this approach. These factors may include all in the following paragraph.

Generally, I'm looking for the game to start with little or no action. However, if a game starts frantically, then it is purely down to luck that team a and b get through this period without scoring. Games may indeed start with both sides 'having a go'. During this first ten to twelve minutes teams may very well attack each other and may very well score. Crowds will be up for it, adrenaline from the players may be high, and both teams will be looking to get in front early on. The pace may be frantic and if a goal is scored during this time (especially an early away goal) then the game is likely to be high scoring. These games I will then discard. I don't want anything to do with them and they go into the bin.

This may be the time where the punter panics, curses their luck that they should have 'backed the gut' and either chase another game in (perhaps too early) or chase this line in (which may now be set to something like over 4.5). In my experience, these games should just be discarded. The attitude should be that it never happened. And there should be no feeling of 'missing out' or anything like that. This is a long term game, and you want to put as many things in your favour on your side over the course; ie the next 1000 bets. This game is nothing, it means nothing, you've missed nothing. Move on.

The game however, may pan out another way. It may be slow. There may be phases of big defensive possession as both sides work things out, get some touches, and try not to make errors early on.  Either way, I don't give a shit. What we want to happen, is to take TIME out of the game. The notion of time in a football match in my belief system is very such secondary to necessity. What do I mean by that? I mean that goals will come in matches as circumstances during the match changes.

If we say that the first ten to twelve minutes of any match is the feeling out stage. The next ten minutes you will start to see (possibly) some probing by one or the other side. In this period you may even see the first decent chance of the match. Here we need a bit of luck. The period then between around 20 minutes and 30-35 is what I perceive as the danger period for any early in play bet undertaken. It's where teams start to express themselves more, the game MAY start to become a little more stretched and we approach the minutes 30-35 where statistically the likelihood for the first goal becomes more of a reality. This I believe is where one of the sweetspots in a football match in play is. Personally here, I'll be looking for some favourites; the goal line 2 and the over 1.5s. Other good spots are taking punts at half time game state 0-0 is another favourite as is betting on or around the 65-67 minute mark. Without wanting to state the obvious, but goal lines of 2.5 require three goals, whereas you are immediately giving yourself the luxury of the 2-0, 1-1 as pushes or wins if you took the 1.5s. I'm also wanting evens. I refuse to take any bet less than this in play. If it's an evens bet, it is just me against the books, fair and square.

My take is this. What you're doing is taking the 'dull part' of the game out of the equation and reducing the game to around a 60 minute, 50 minute or whatever time is left shootout for the less goal line. If a goal is scored in around when you place a bet (say around 34th minute) then you have the luxury of perhaps a comeback goal soon after, or another goal scored by the original scorers. In this example, if you think of the first half as a cup filling up, the likelihood of a goal is increasing (in the first half) which gives enough time for the possibility of 1 goal (perhaps even 2 if you're lucky) in the first half.

This is just one entry point which is good for the over 2, over 1.5 lines. These of course depend on your selections which I'll come to later. As stated numerous times, if you want to take a first half punt, this is where I would enter, with the other points being at half time (or when 1.5 becomes evens) and around the 67 minute mark.

The biggest problem people have with betting this way, is that they see this 'lost time' as detrimental to the bets in terms of them having less chance (because of less time) of landing the bet. It's here where some experience may play a part and where 'other' factors even up the playing field.

FACTORS AND GAME SITUATION
So what are these other factors that level up the game. There are perhaps too many to list, but here are some. A favourite team may be starting to open up more, pushing forward more, thus taking  more risks for them to score, or for them to be countered. Players starting to do things 'outside the box' from a regimented first goalless period of the game. Managers issuing new instructions. Concentration beginning to wane. Fatigue starting to show it's first signs in the players, albeit at an early level. There are others which I'll touch on later.

At this point, and coming to perhaps near the end of the first half, if a goal has been scored then we are more than halfway there and the bet is in your favour to land or to be pushed. You've given yourself the maximum chance from a first half standpoint, but without the risk of betting first half goals. If it's 0-0 at half time, then we are hoping for second half goals. A goal line of 2 taken would mean I would be happy escaping the position with a push, but the over 1.5 position is still well and truly on.

ALL of the above I take into consideration if you want to take a first half line bet and is in relation to your tactic being taking any lines in the first half, or getting a goal line to 2 2.00 or 1.5 2.00 within the first half.

So why would I STILL be confident of landing an over 1.5 or over 2 bet with the score at 0-0 HT? Well it's my belief that football matches are not two halves of 45, but rather two periods of different times. I think of a game of football as the first 'half' if you like being 60, and the second half being 30. From 60 minutes on we really see all those things I touched on earlier, and more, taking effect.

Managers will have had their half time team talk, players will have been given different sets of tactics maybe. A favourite will now feel the need to up the pace and press the game leaving them more likely to score and conversely them more likely to concede as the game opens up. We've also had 45-60 minutes of running. Physically the players are starting to feel the pinch, which means the game again becoming more open. Minds may be starting to get tired, hopefully leading to mistakes. In short, it is my believe that it's truly game on from around the 60th minute, where the pitty patty football of the first 60 gets torn up for more instinctive play, risk taking and thinking outside of systems and regimented play. If a goal is scored early in the second half then the tone becomes set with more goals hopefully to follow. But even if it's STILL 0-0 after 60 minutes, all over 2s and 1.5 bets still have a chance of landing.

If we have the mindset that there will be a goal in the last 10 minutes, then all we have to find is one goal from HT to minute 80 to have a realistic chance of over 1.5 landing, and pushing goal line 2. If the last 30 minutes of every game is the business end, then the last ten minutes of every match is the super business end. Teams losing simply have to throw the bank at it, opening themselves up to be countered whilst the better teams by now will have run the worse team ragged and look to be adding the second and possibly the third.

One tactic I employed to huge success is the 67th minute on tactic with teams 0-0. Lines for over 0.5 will be around 1.70/1.80 whilst lines of 1 will be around 2.80 to 3.00s. Just 3 minutes later and we more or less have an evens contest for over 0.5 with a goal line 1 being around 4.00s.

Quite simply, the sooner the punter takes the notion of lack of time out of their mindset, the easier it is to level up this game against the books. Time is quite simply, a number. How many times do we see what I call flash goals, goals in batches. Nothing for 63 minutes, then two in the space of the next five.

One other mindset to get your head around is also that games of football are not 90 minutes. They are 92, 93, 94 minutes, or may be even longer. These three minutes or so which you need to factor in are crucial in the mindset. The end of the first half 45+ and the end of the second half 90+ sees a tump of goals and it is primarily the reason why I have always bet the overs market. You'll be amazed at the efficiency and desperation of a side (who previously looked like they couldn't hit the barn door with a ball) given their circumstances if they go 1-0 down with 10 minutes to play.

These are all 'things', 'factors' that I try and consider and which I have seen happen time and time again over the years. When betting first half goals for example, how many times do sides come out and score in minute 47 or thereabouts. One match to consider as possibly the best example of this is the recent West Ham v Hull match. The game was 0-0 HT and looked to be going nowhere; in the end it was 3-0 to West Ham and could have been 5. I don't know off the top of my head, but the goal line at half time was probably something like 0.5,1 1.80; the over 1.5 was probably around 2.80 or something. 

EXAMPLES
The importance of betting the goal line 2 (or 1.5) in these examples is not to underestimated. This may seem (and is) a perfectly obvious statement to make, but you only have to find two goals here rather than three. It is my opinion that teams will 'make these goals up' outside of the 'time lost' in the first half. Look at this example, another recent punt of mine.

At half time, the goal line for this was 1.5 2.20. And what was that about my games start at 60 rule? More specifically again, that I liked the 67 minute mark?

This is tactic number two really, if you don't wish to commit too early to taking first half bets of higher goal lines (ie 2s and 1.5s), then you could always wait for the games that are 0-0 with minute 60-70 in sight. You may ask at this point why choose games that are 0-0? It's just because this is just one tactic specifically looking at games with a game state of 0-0. I have other tactics etc for other games at different game states, but the 0-0 ones I like the best. Firstly because I always like the goal expectation starting from 0 goals. With a game state of 1-1 2-2 it's difficult to gauge just how many more goals will come. Secondly, there's obviously better value than if a game already has goals in. Books will factor in probably of more goals and goal lines and the odds aren't as good.

The other thing as well, is that it is easier to try and master a tactic with as many variables being the same over and over again than with multiple variables and at different points in the match. Although I do take other games with different game states on, but I try to take those on with 1 goal scored already primarily, and sometimes 2. Anymore, and I think it becomes a little more guesswork,

At this point you may be wondering or asking yourself the question 'hey that's all great, but what if the score ends 0-0 because of lack of time...you look like a nob then hahaha lolz'....well if it ends 0-0, it ends 0-0. All I ever want to do in any given game is give me the best possible chance of covering the best lines in a certain time frame.

Some leagues this is impossible. I'm thinking youth leagues, especially where there can be sometimes 2/3/4 first half goals. So obviously tactics for these would be different. But I would wager that on any given day, more first goals are scored say after minute 15, than under minute 15. So theoretically, there is your small edge anyway in play.

The other thing, kind of important to stress, is that I'm not betting Argentina Primera B stuff here; we obviously want games that look like there's going to be goals, especially if you are taking the goal line of 2s in the first half and 1.5s. If you have the second tactic of waiting later in the game, then this isn't so much an issue as even lower scoring leagues and teams should manage a goal somewhere. I'll touch on this later.

So what are the benefits of both the systems that I've touched upon? Well the first system taken primarily first half or when odds for goal line 2 is 2 or goal line 1.5 is 2 allows the person to punt and forget. You've taken enough time out of the game that is still comfortable to land the bet, without the hassle of relying on shot on target data from 365, your timing later in the match and without having the need to be flicking backwards and forwards multiple tabs and screens and pages to see which games are 0-0 late on. It gives time for a goal in the first half (normally around 15 minutes, may be more) and possibly two if there is one in the first half. It also gives enough time second half to land punts even if there is no goals first half. And it also guards against having to find a third goal if you had otherwise taken a 2.5 position.

The benefit of the second way is that you've gone 60 plus minutes and therefore a goal is more than imminent. Top teams will be piling on the pressure by now, from minute 65 which I reckon is the period where games become fully open, there will be more space, more risk taking and generally more urgency to score. This is also the time where players and teams will start thinking outside of the box and therefore any regimented formations that previously saw 0-0 for the previous x minutes will start to change.

There are of course, off-setting factors, like anything. The fact that the teams have gone 60 minutes at 0-0 could be perceived as both nullifying each other completely. The fact that they haven't scored to this point could mean they are not likely to score going forward. These are all good points. Also the fact that an inferior side having taken a better side this far at 0-0 will be even more determined to hold out could also be a motivating factor behind not conceding. All good points. But I feel my theories on late goals outweigh any negatives.

The first system if you like, depends on your mindset if you think there is going to be a goal imminent in the first half.  It relies on you thinking that the bottle is filling filling oh so slowly (towards the end of the first half), and that you've taken what you deem to be the optimal time out of the game and taken the optimal line for that time left. You also obviously think, there will be goals before minute 60 (which is why you didn't take the other system in the first place).

Looking at games from around the 60 minute mark 0-0 relies on games not having any goals in them, and so you are taking quite a large chunk of games out of your arsenal to choose from. But you're obviously giving yourself some nice odds for just one goal to be scored for example.

WHY GOALS?
Whilst we're talking goals, I just want to touch on why I bet goals. Many punters opt to take outrights, or team to score next; in my experience this is much harder to perfect than simply goals (although the returns may be greater). How many times have we seen on the 365 stats team A dominating only to be hit on the counter? Or a red card for the team you bet? Or whatever.....the more things outside of simply goals you bet, the more there is to go wrong in my eyes. By taking goals you are dismissing any team having to win, and putting things more in your favour again. Also should the underdog manage to score against the run of play you've increased your chances of making the overs.

So, these are just two systems that I look at, which is just taking games at three points really ie anything that I fancy taking first half with a goal line 2 or 1.5 at evens normally between minutes 25 and 35; anything at HT; and the other with games that are 0-0 going into the last 30 minutes to 25 minutes.

These are just three angles I use. There may be times where I use others I feel, or just have a day where I look to play the entire day on instinct ie take games at different times with different game states.

365
One thing I want to touch upon too is the over-reliance on some to use the Bet365 stats as a barometer for betting. These stats should be used to accompany any feelings. But if I was to pick a preference between using these alone to decide bets and ignoring these completely and placing bets based on time gone and previous stats off the two teams (scores in previous games etc), then I would use the latter. These 365 stats give no indication as to the shot strength, accuracy or where the shot is from. A team from Hong Kong for example may need 13 shots for a goal whereas another team may need 3. So it's all a little too fanciful JUST to use the Bet365 stats to place punts. Hand in hand with this bit of advice is this.....NEVER watch the attack imagery back and forth on the 365 interface. If you want to keep an eye on a game, just favourite it and keep it on the left hand side to keep an eye on the time etc. Watching the game arrow go back and forth is designed to trigger emotions from the player, normally too early. It's kind of why I mostly don't even look at the stats etc and place bets purely on the current game state and time.

EXAMPLES
Here's some examples of what I'm talking about in some more depth. You could retort with 'oh well why don't you show the losses', but the fact is for January alone, @daspunter account is up +63u, so something must be right.

These were more or less a sequence of bets. You can see some are the first half bets (either goal line 2 or 1.5) taking more or less just before a first goal, others may be punting a winning goal, but you can see that they are all after the 30 mark give or take. These are the definitions of what I am talking about of course. These would be considered truly exceptional days where they fit the template 100%. Which brings me onto the next sort of thing I want to touch on. And that's the mentality to losing as well as winning.

WINNING......AND MORE IMPORTANTLY......LOSING
In order to be successful long term you need to be able to appreciate losing as an aspect of sports betting. Winning and losing are part and parcel. If you cannot take losing bets, then you shouldn't be in the game. It is therefore essential to treat each bet as simply some kind of business transaction. You are in reality, just betting on things that are ultimately out of your hands based on stats and other variables that you deem important. That is all. I see far too many normal punters and experienced gamblers get down on themselves as if they have failed in some way. This is because they haven't fully embraced losing in gambling as well as winning. Losing hits them hard. This could be whether they have staked incorrectly, or just feel pressured to keep finding winners. The fact is that this is a very, very difficult game to win long term.

If you put pressure on yourself to keep finding winners to either hit targets or to please others, then you will lose and become frustrated. You must just see losses as the other side of the coin and hope that you win more than you lose. Embrace losses. You cannot control events thousands of miles away, all you can do is play the numbers (or goals) and leave it the gods. Losses shouldn't be taken personally. It is not a slight on you. Just move on. Like you do with a winner.

WHAT WE LOOKING FOR?
So moving on let's touch on the type of games we want, and just to highlight perhaps some basics that may fit into what constitutes good plays. Firstly, I like to have an overview of the last six games of both teams. I like to see how many times they have gone over 2.5. I want to see how many times they have gone over 2.5 in the last 6 games combined. I like to see how many times there has been BTTS scored in each of their last six games and each of their last three games. I want to see how many times 1.5 has gone over. I also don't generally like taking teams that are either winners all the time or losers all the time. Don't ask me why, but from experience teams who have won most of their six (both of them) will limp to a 1-0 low scoring affair, whilst teams that are losers all the time may struggle to find the first goal against one another even though stats may suggest previously that there may be goals.

You also have to pay attention to other various details. Is it a cup game? How likely are one team or another going to go for a winner knowing that there may be extra time? If it's a league game, how early or late are we into the season. Early season games may be feelers where the necessity for winning or going for broke at the end of the match isn't as high, ie take the point, whereas end of season games are more likely to see teams go for bust, both at the top and bottom of the league. So just some things to consider. Big favourites v minnows are especially good for the type of strategies I've highlighted, where perhaps the underdog get men behind the ball stifling at least 30 minutes of game time before they become tired as the game wears on. The recent Getafe-Madrid game (see above) was one such game.

Perhaps an ideal template would be something like this Concepcion game highlighted at the top of the article.

These were the last six games before they played each other. Overs (2.5) has gone over 9 times. 1.5 was hit 10 times. BTTS out of 12 games was 9. Over 2.5 has hit 5 times in their last six games combined. I like one team to have won at least one game and at least drawn one, and the other team has to have won at least two games. This was about as classic as it came. You could have had goal line 2 at evs, goal line 1.5 at evs and all would have landed (FT score 2-1).

Like I keep saying, it's all about putting those percentages in your favour. The 2.5s before the game was 1.80. So not only in this instance could we have taken better odds, but we could have done so with less risk. Remember.....time isn't the problem. We need to take time out of the game.

The important thing to note here, is that this is a long term thing. If you find that you have lost a few in a row this is normally the time when punters panic and shift ground, try something new, and get even more confused. The aim is discipline and repetition. If a system is successful, then it will continue to be successful through all kinds of runs. At the end of the day, we are just betting numbers, with no emotion involved.

Some other keys. I would say that 90% of in players bet too early by at least five-ten minutes a time. This may be attributed to impulses from the Bet365 interface which is designed to get you punting and playing early or entering positions that you shouldn't. The key here is discipline. If a goal goes on before that goal line 2 hits evens, walk away, forget about the game and don't dive on another one to make up for it as soon as you can for odds of 8/13. This is bad play. In this ever growing database that 365 has, you NEED TO LET THE GAMES COME TO YOU. The games will always be there. The opportunities and timings will always be there. It's all about maximizing good days and minimizing losses on the bad.

I could go on and try and go a little bit more in depth, but my hands are killing. The last thing I want to touch on is that you will have times where the entry point is good (say taking an over 1.5 punt, the goal comes soon after) and then nothing for the remainder of the game. Just move on. Don't get angry, it wasn't meant to be. This is just a bad beat and that's it. These are human beings after all, there is nothing enshrined in law that says that all bets must come in or that they ever do. All you can do is put things in your favour and hope. JUST as I am writing this this has happened.....but this could have gone my way, or there could have not been a second goal. It's just life.

Took over 1.5 2.00 at HT.

 The key is not to bitch if it loses. It is why you should never get excited about wins (and winning streaks/days/months) and call yourself the next betting king, and never get down on yourself conversely if it goes against you. You are neither gods gift or the worlds worst gambler. Lastly, BANKROLL MANAGEMENT.

There will be times when things run like clockwork. You stack units after units up and you're up 16u in a few days. These are great times. Then there'll be times when you seem to go nowhere perhaps a few units lost in a few days. THIS IS DANGER TIME. Do not change your angles and systems. Do not change markets. Don't get funky with anything other than what has worked and what has been successful. Don't lump, don't chase; if you need to, take the day off or week off. Bet each event in ones or twos, don't have 10 positions outstanding. Look to gain slowly, steadily, and surely. Remember the keys - maximize good days and far, far more importantly, MINIMIZE damage on bad days/runs. As an example, I once went 23 days without making a penny. The next month I picked up +60u...so don't panic if you are not going anywhere or even have made small losses. Stick in there. See the bad patch out.

So anyway, take what you wish from this, if anything, and hope it has given you at least a glimpse as to my perspectives when going at it in play.

Just as I am finishing up this article, these happened I shit you not.

Rule 1 of never betting outrights once again comes to fruition. Rule 2.....well that's obvious...can you see it yet! :)

PS.

These were another two taken from 22/01/2014 and sums up in a nutshell what we are after.

The first was a position of goal line 2 evs, the second goal line 2 at evs which pushed and goal line 1.5 evs which won.


The good , the bad, and the fugly. 

I've been meaning to write another blog post regarding betting tips and tactics, but first I want to address something that I've grown to see more and more and more over the years in relation to punters' expectations and that of those that are 'in the know'.

This week, a person DM'ed me asking how they could be part of @daspunter, with the single premise of just one thing; to make money daily. It's hard to know what to say to such requests apart from simply warn them away from the type of betting and systems that I try and practice. Numerous times I could be the sales guy and say hop on board, promise them the good fortune and paint a picture of endless profit. Which of course is nonsense.

Which brings me onto the topic of perception in gambling, and particularly the 'normal' persons perception of what is gambling and what is success. The average gambler wants to win; every day. They see gambling, and in particular in reference to those that pertain to know more about gambling and winning money, as one generic linear journey to the rainbow. It comes as quite a surprise to them when FC Jibberjabber go 1-1 in the first half, with an over 2.5 bet losing at full time (with a missed penalty to boot). Indeed, the difference to what is or isn't a good gambler/tipster on any given day is perhaps so fine and marginal that the bigger picture gets left behind. The public doesn't always get what the public wants. And most of the time, it is impossible to provide what the public expects.

Below is the betting returns that your punter expects. He wants nice, clean, daily wins. The term 'gambling' never enters their minds as this is of course, a daily money making exercise.

 

The person who I referred to previously (and there have been many many others before him) saw gambling in such a way and I'm sure saw me as somebody different. Somebody who could provide a daily steady income stream because I 'know more' than person x. . Many people that follow tipsters or premium services also think of gambling in these terms. For them, it is simply impossible to comprehend that gambling isn't quite black and white. The person said in basic terms, 'if I start with x on Monday, how much can you make me by the next Sunday?'. I politely steered him away from me and explained in the nicest possible terms that it doesn't always work like this. Although, if he had had followed me in the next three days he would have seen a run of around 15u, but that's another story. This could easily have been a loss of 8u and therein he would have ate into his bank already.

It is actually frightening to believe that the majority of punters out there think that this is some kind of kids game with guaranteed returns. Say I had won 20 bets in a row before this person joined me, and then I had lost 10 bets in a row wiping out his bankroll, would that make me a successful gambler or an unsuccessful one? To him, I would be judged as unsuccessful. But the kind of narrow mind of most is astounding. To them, gambling is a day on day order of merit regardless of any past triumphs and overall long term profitability.

If I were to tell you that a professional gambler at the top of his game would be more than delighted with a 56-60% win rate over the distance would this surprise you? It seems perhaps the expectation of most gamblers is skewed. Perhaps they are expecting 70/80% long term? In truth, and particularly my betting style, a month is likely to look something more akin to this -


There will be fluctuations and days of grafting/grinding/not getting anywhere fast with the hope of landing more good days than bad before hitting one or two excellent days. The key therefore, is not to panic with wildly swinging stakes to compensate for the loss days or those frustrating days. This is also a time where I am going to stick up for tipsters and premium bettors alike, in that it is almost near impossible to satisfy people. Winners will be treated as an expectation; almost a right. Losers will be replied upon and commented on. I once tallied up a weeks worth or responses and it was something like a 68%-22% split with regard to replies off losing bets to winning bets. It seems praising a win is much much more difficult that jumping on a loss.

This brings me onto my next issues which is the lack of opening balance when undertaking a gambling venture over the long term. It seems that most who gamble bet some sort of day to day allowance and want to build on that nice and steadily each and every day. The possibility of long losing runs is something foreign to them but they are more than willing to embrace the chance of long profitable runs. So why is this? If we say that gambling is a game of chance, much like any other game of chance, there will of course be positive and negative runs, days, weeks, months etc. All gamblers (and myself included) try to do is to put the odds slightly in my favour during this game of chance. Will the outcome always be favorable? Of course not.  But again, it's the short sightedness of most to believe that gambling is a few game deal. What the successful gambler does, is to do the same thing in that same position over a sequence of bets each and every time over the course of hundreds of bets.

In play betting especially is as much to do about the timing of the bet as the bet itself. Is winning a punt at 1.50 deemed a win/success if that same bet could have been taken for evens 8 times out of ten? Sometimes when you win, you lose. It's why mug gamblers love the quick thrill of winners at reduced odds. The perception that you have 'won' by gambling a 1.20/1.30 shot over the course of many bets is a silly one and one that simply cannot be maintained being profitable over a long period of time. The fact remains that this is an extremely hard thing to master and be profitable out of. Not many can do it day to day and over the course for the following reasons - lack of discipline, impatience, the inability to take losses with wins, the inability to take losing streaks, the inability to consistently bet at favorable odds over the course, bankroll mismanagement.

Even experienced players on Twitter get too high or too low which causes states of being overly happy or overly depressed about wins/losses. And this is where knowing that long term systems and successful strategies especially in play need patience and the ability to absorb loss days and weeks. One of the biggest problems with novice and inexperienced gamblers (and even gamblers who are experienced bit lack discipline) is that if they don't see the required results day in day out, they alter patterns of betting and alter their systems and strategies. They'll jump from overs to unders, fhg to long lines, late goals to next goal, goals to outrights or goals to corners/cards. It is at this point where the control element they had is gone. Anyway, I've had my little whine the next post will be revealing some of my strategies etc.


System Bets through December and into January 16

Okay, so I've been trialing a little something on the side of my normal instinct punts on the goal line, and they were a number of system bets which I plan to keep on using for the next few months.

In a nutshell, here's how the bets did during the period 2nd December 2015 to around the 8th January 2016. I did mean to get everything in nice spreadsheet form, but you can appreciate the time this has consumed. Here were the final results for that periods anyway.







 

 

 

 

The above is the raw data of which was really time consuming, but the figures are ultimately correct if the teams are missing etc.

The 'systems' in place were -

1) A first half response goal(s) with the first goal being scored between 1 minute and 23 regardless of either home or away scoring the first. I have to say that I was very disappointed with this one. A previous trial of first half response goal to a home team scoring between minutes 7-27 earlier in the year yielded some huge profit (around 60u), and so I may very likely alter this system to just focus on that.
+5.5u

2) The second system was a fhg involving games where there had been a minimum of 3 shots on target by ONE side by minute 25. The bet was triggered any time from 25/27 depending on whether the odds had already reached evens or above. An obvious factor is that you obviously have to THINK also that there will be a goal fh. Very impressed here.  When I actually stopped the official records, there were probably another 8-10u that could have been added to this in fairness.
+31.85

3) A goal after 75. There was no focus on the amounts of shots or the amount of goals, although I will stress that this system works better using 0-0 game state or 1-0, 0-1. I'm pretty sure. Again, when I stopped another 8-10u could easily be added to this total.
+25.6

PS - Since posted originally on 6th December, 75+ system went on a remarkable run adding a further +18u

4) Pre game unders I couldn't really be arsed with.

5) Asian Dog pre game (or just after KO). Really liked this one. This surprisingly yielded +23.75 units based on the underdog having to have won the last game. In the majority of cases too, I wanted the underdog to be at least a clear +0.5 dog. Very happy here.
+23.65

6-whatever
Not really focused on these, need to find something that will please me with regard to NBA for example.

Roller
Been sensational. I have accumulated £1153 from rolling acca bets each time hitting a game at 1.50, trying to win four bets to get to £253, then banking £203. I generally favour 0-0s and 1-0s, 0-1s, very much like the 75+ system. In fact, the vast majority of the time, roller punts will bleed into the 75+ punts too.
+£1153. In unit terms, this is + 23.06u based on £50 stakes.

So overall, using the systems highlighted above (some of which are refines from systems I've always used) and incorporating the roller accas too, they have yielded +109u in around a month. This was surprisingly stunning, and I really don't think that I can hit this every month or even get near it.

Now you may have questions as to HOW I pick the games; the answer is I just do. In most part, it ain't rocket science. But the discipline from these systems is WHEN you place the bets, rather than WHAT you place on.

Generally speaking, I like a first half response goal if there has been a goal (especially home goal between minute 7-27) after minute 32 (or between 28-34, which is where I believe the sweet spot is). The exact minutes for optimal entry are actually between minutes 28-34 for my money, but it's where you want to enter really. Do you want less wins but greater odds at 32-34. or more wins at less odds entering at 28-32?

The same for a fhg. Generally, the minimum entry point for a fhg should be around minutes 25-27. This gives 20 minutes (22 if over time) to find the first half goal giving yourself the optimal chance of winning the bet v odds, this is factoring in the expectation of when fhgs are scored, the activity in the game up to that point, decent odds etc.

The Asian Dog thing is one I've been super impressed with. This is just backing dogs with a minimum of +0.5AH goal start providing they won/drew the last game. In fact, the majority of the time when backing dogs at +1, +1.5, +2, they tend to cover the +0.5 anyway, which is something I really have to look into. It's quite obviously the difference between picking up +0.9 on the spread line or picking up an extra 1u or 1.5u at just the +0.5AH.

The 75+ goal is something that I have loved for years and have used for years. It's as reliable as anything. The key is to KEEP the discipline, and wait til minute 75.

And the roller I am know absolutely loving. +23u from this is a super return. And let's face it, they are quite fun too.

Any questions please get back to me.

SO TO RECAP on the best systems here.

1) A FHG.
A fhg after a MINIMUM of 3 shots on target from any side before minute 25. Bets placed generally between 25-27 depending if odds are below evens or not. You must also rather obviously have to THINK that there will be one. This system also seems to work MUCH better with known sides from the decent leagues. It's also important not to carpet bomb this with multiple games, this system also seems to work better choosing one game at a time and waiting for the game that is very presentable (ie it doesn't have to be just 3 shots on target, but if a team has 4/5 may be better). I'll add a PS to this, in that as a GENERAL RULE if you ant to take a fhg regardless of shots on target stats, then I would still take the point at 25-27 minutes.

As stressed, I also like the better more recognized teams here, as they seem to have a better sense of 'timing' with regards to applying pressure at the end of the first half, especially if they are a favourite and expected to win. The amount of times you will get the dreaded second half goal on 47/48 will drive you nuts. But you WILL cash one day when all the cards fall in your favour.

2) GOAL AFTER 75.
Quite simply, if you fancy a goal after 75. Generally works with big favourites leading 1-0 and having a tump of pressure, or favourites losing 1-0, or if game state 0-0. Generally aim for a minimum of evens odds.

3) Rolling accas. Bets placed at 1.50 each time with game state 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 as favoured positions.

4) ASIAN UNDERDOG. Asian underdog with a minimum of a half goal start (+0.5). This can be anything from +0.5 to +1, +1.5, +2, +2.5 etc provided the dog has won the last game.

Again, any questions, please get back to me.

As always, these systems were applied through good and bad runs. At one stage, the FHG system went on a run of 8 games without landing. THIS IS BETTING. I simply didn't throw the toys out of the pram because of this run. Generally by giving yourself these timings (ie a goal after a minimum of 25-27 minutes of game time gone) you are hitting the fhg in the majority of the time for evens, and a lot of the time between 2.50-3.00. This means you therefore only have to win 3/4 to absorb the -8u in losses if you go on such a run. Remember, it's the ODDS and the TIMING which make the systems work it seems.

THE THEORIES BEHIND THE SYSTEMS

In terms of the fhg system and the 75+ one, there are certain mindsets that need to be applied for it to work; or at least for it to be given the best chance. I've spoken at length in previous blog posts about what I believe are the sweet spots in the majority of matches and you cannot waver for a second on this belief if you are going to apply these sort of strategies. In it's most simplistic form, I'm a firm believer that a lot of games fall into this sort of template.



The mantra though that goals change games is just so true though. If you get an early goal in a game then anything can happen. But, as stated in previous blogs, the general rule is that games will have a ten minute feeling out period. You'll then get the first serious attacks approaching minutes 15-20 where you preferably do not want a goal scored for these type of bets and systems. You then approach the business end of the first half if you have survived at 0-0 to this point.

Minutes 23/24/25 on are absolutely vital. It's at this time that you can either opt for s smaller goal line with great value (my traditional favourite over 2 at eves) or try a first half goal. In terms of risk/reward, the over 2 I have always seen as the safer option, as how many time do we place a bet only for the first goal of the game to be scored on 47/48? However, you do get more reward for opting for a fhg,sometimes between evs and 3.00 depending on when you place.

The reason why minutes 25-45 are pivotal, is that a large majority of the time, this is the 20 minutes that decides the outcome of the game and amount of goals scored. Not always, but if you can get a fhg between these times, generally there will be many more goals to come. Also, the amount of times you see a goal scored 34/35 or later to 38/39 and then a response goal to make it 1-1 or a counter for 2-0 is quite a lot.

The flip side is, if you don't get that goal between these key minutes, even though a side may be a firm favourite, then we can start to look at the other system; 75+. You see, a lot of the times if team A fails to break team B down inside this time, then it simply doesn't just carry on into the second half. Half time is obviously a chance to regather, and so there is likely to be minutes (hopefully around 15-20) where the times regather and replay again. I call the period between 45 and say 62/63, the sea of nothingness; generally.

Pros it seems like to take their time, and whereas punters and the like may see last 15 minutes as a very small window of opportunity and to change a game, footballers and their coaches think this is an eternity. After 75 minutes, you have to factor in fatigue, space creation, tired minds, the favourite pushing all out for the win by this stage which means also that there is far greater chance of counter attacks. Remember, we don't care who scores.

So in theory, by betting both tail ends of each half we are giving us (theoretically) the best chance of a goal being scored based on a whole bunch of variables. Remember, we are trying to place as many factors in our favour over the course of 100/200/1000 bets.

KEY

So which bets and systems do you use smart ass? I am a firm believer that having a sixth sense honed after thousands of bets is quite critical here. The Gambler's Fallacy for example -



points to certain principles in betting that are sometimes mistaken. HOWEVER, and this is VITAL, there are some days where positions just work and others don't. It is therefore paramount to asses as quickly as possible 'what sort of day' you will have. I'm a firm believer in streaks, momentum and runs. I have bet thousands of bets, I have sat by my computer for thousands of hours, I have watched game lines for years. I have spent thousands of days watching and seeing the results of things. I can tell you, that from my perspective, you get days that run for you and don't. The secret is knowing as quickly as possible what sort of day you will have, and gauging what sort of systems need to be applied.

For example, the period from the start of January 2016 to 10th January 2016, the fhg system has been hit or miss. A generally breaking even proposition. But the 75+ goal has been smoking hot. So therefore go with the flow. I can say that the 75+ system has hit over 75% of the time, which is incredible. It is these tiny intuitions that you need to hone to get the best out of these systems. Perhaps in two weeks time, 75+ will go cold, and fhg goal or response goal will start to work more. The key is knowing when you are beaten. If there is little action involving a fhg for you, and you're getting a whole bunch of 47/48 goals just after half time, alternate your strategy to taking the longer goal line 2 or 1.5.

If there are goals being scored at the end of games, then switch entirely to 75+. This isn't an easy one size fits all thing gambling. And don't press things. When you start to lose or enter a losing run, the first instinct always is to BET MORE FREQUENTLY with HIGHER STAKES. In fact, you should do the EXACT opposite. Like I say, I am huge into momentum, and if things are going for you, everything will generally go for you. The key is to maximize this time when you are winning and/or ahead of the game, and minimize your loss runs. It's only human nature that people want to bet more after losses as it's the survival instinct (fight or flight) that immediately kicks in.

When gambling, you will go through emotions which affect the psychology of everything. Bad losses may confuse sending mixed fight or flight signals to the brain, whereby generally you will feel compelled 'to correct' the problem and bad beat. At this point it is either advisable to a) stop betting or b) reduce stakes and amount of bets you place. So never force these systems. When you are in a losing run too, you will start to take bets earlier and earlier for less odds making the issues worse as what we are after is long term profitability at set points. Remember; it's not how many winners you win, it's the odds that are taken for. 6 winners out of ten may be breaking even if the entry point is wrong.

SOME ADVICE

When you go through a bad run, the world will seem against you. You will become impatient and take lower odds and bet more often. Don't. When you are going through a lean trot, your timings will troll you. You will miss games by seconds, and you'll have a day of 'what ifs' spiraling through your mind as for the 6th time you waited for minute 75 and there were goals on minute 72,71,69. Do not chase. Do not take odds earlier than you absolutely have to. You're better off missing the game completely than delving in at 1.66. Remember, this is LONG TERM profitability. Sometimes, when you win you lose and vice-versa. By shifting the sands, even slightly say from 75 to 71, you're changing the odds from say 2.20 to 1.90. This may not seem much, but over the course, it's huge and all odds up.

When you're in a bad run or things just aren't running, take a break. This is one of my biggest problems. How many times do you sense a bad day, only for you to bet a couple more and end up on the wrong side of -7u in the blink of an eye? Test the water of any day. Feel the force as it were. Do I ever come back from losing starts? Of course I do. But as a general rule, I can normally sense the way the day is going within the first hour of play. And the majority of time, my gut instincts of a good/bad day are right. Like I say, the ability to determine what sort of day and what sort of systems you want to apply is critical. The last seven days, quite honestly, I have carpet bombed every game that I fancy for 75+ and they are all falling into place. Another month, it may be back to fhg 25-27 on to 47. Who knows? But the ability to feel games is of utmost importance.

Gambling is fucking hard work. If you can get any profit out of any day, you're doing well. We all make stupid errors and stupid plays, the key is to minimize these and to try and learn from them. Am I perfect? No. Do I tend to play too many games? Of course. But generally I come out of a week inning more than losing. Anyway, happy punting.