Statistics are fine in doses but rules are made to be broken. Almeria v Villareal in focus. @jonnygrossmark
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| Stats, stats, and damned lies |
Almeria were 2-1 up at HT against Villareal. Last season, out of 21 home matches, Almeria were winning at HT in 9 of those games, and went on to win all 9 of these games. So, Almeria with a game state when winning at HT had a winning ratio of 100%, from 9 occasions.
Where Villareal is concerned, there were 3 occasions last season when they were losing at half time (away from home out of 21 games), and they didn't win a single game when trailing at HT (drew 1, lost 2).
SO....out of TWELVE games combined between the two sides, Almeria never lost when leading at half time and Villareal never won when losing at HT.
SO...GUESS WHAT HAPPENED!??!
That's right; Villareal came back from behind (losing 2-1 in the 83rd minute) to win the match 2-3 with a goal from does Santos 83, and Pereira 86.
Statistics are fine and can give you edges some of the time. The problem is obviously the odds change with a shifting game state and so you you have to win more bets at lower odds if you use in-play triggers. Then you factor in the one anomaly (like this) and you're left with a big loss. Can you imagine if a punter took the lay Villareal odds at HT in this, with ALL the data available pointing to it with the cushion of the draw as well as the win?
The jury's out for me.
Statistics can provide an insight into the likelihood of what will happen. But if statistics were the only underlying factor then punters would be walking in the park with wins. What statistics don't reveal is the strikers mental state of mind, fall outs in the dressing room, the keeper not feeling too well, weather conditions etc etc.
Chris, just want to make a comment on this. I agree that statistics are not always right and can not predict every game, like the reasons you mentioned in your last paragraph. But there is certainly a trend with HT-game states. Jonny Grossmark has a great study done to it. Just look at his site sotdoc.co.uk and at the Bet on Target site.
ReplyDeleteIf you random pick a game and then bet following the stats you have a chance you have one of the losers. Like all strategies, you have to stick to the strategy and so you should bet on all the games with that game state with value odds to make a profit in the long-term.
There are multiple ways to be winning in the long term. First I was also very sceptic about statistics, but they certainly can give you a edge. Myself following different systems, some are statistics based, some are instict.
On my blog (sportstradernl.blogspot.nl)I pick selections from the Dutch league. They are instict-based, but I like to back them up with stats. Instinct-bases can also be profitable, as long you back only odds that you think represents value.
The problem I see to betting this way is that obviously the odds are reduced on game state. Whilst you may be reducing the risk, you're also minimizing your winnings. What would a win at HT game state give you? 1.18 ish. You'd have to make up five bets at that exact same price to get your lost bet back.
DeleteYou're also basing statistics on something; ie last season's trends for example. But teams change, managers change etc. Chateauroux for example only lost two home games at home last season, and so the stats would indicate that you lay the opposition almost every time. And yet they have lost their first home game of this season already, and will probably lose a heap more this year.
So whilst the might be a trend for HT game states, which I'm not going to argue with, the odds are reduced considerably for that very reason.
I have to agree with you to some extent, as usual. Of course, seasons change and trends from other seasons don't seem to matter that much. Actually, I don't even look at team. As with every person and his dog, things change. One couldn't say that Second Coming from the Stone Roses would be as great as the first album, and it is completely awful sh*t. Things aren't linear, things are never linear.
ReplyDeleteI saw every man and his dog betting on Benfica to win against Marítimo at Sunday. Just because Benfica almost won the league and got to Europa League Final, without even knowing what happened during the season. I warned a lot on twitter, no one seemed to care. Everyone was just too confident that the team that only lost the first game in the Championship against FC Porto (on 29th Matchday) would win easily. Benfica lost 2-1.
But as Dutch Sports Trader mentioned, there is surely a trend in-season. I actually get used to use trends to my advantage, especially in-play. As you know, Urawa Reds score a lot in the last 10 minutes. 3-3 against Oita on Saturday, so LTD was a possibility. Although I wasn't watching the game at the time, I'm sure if I was I would do it. Of course they scored, 4-3 at the 86'. Why didn't I do it? Rule #9130943: Don't bet on games you're not watching. Maybe the game was being a bummer, and teams couldn't do better than 3-3.
Statistics isn't everything. You need to be aware of team form, motivational factors, weather, problems between the team, etc. But it sure helps a lot when taking decisions.
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