It's an analysis game tonight. The smart money obviously says either BTTS or over 2.5, but I'm trying to look at a different approach and that is to back the unexpected. I'm going to run through a number of games for analysis and this is my numero uno. Or to put it another way, game number one.
Here's the raw data. Mallorca's goal tally at home is around 2.9 a game whilst Betis is at a whopping 3.77. So the data points to goals, and lots of them.
Goals per game data combined = 3.35.
Now let's have a look at the head to head. Mallorca home have a 17-5-5-7 return, whilst Betis away have 17-7-2-8. Not much to take out of that although a key figure there is that Betis have only drawn TWICE away from home this season. A draw between the two sides is 3.5 (Bet365) or 3.65 on the exchanges.
If we take the biggest victory and biggest defeat out of the equation for both we are left with Mallorca 15 games, 19 goals, 23 conceded. Betis are left with 23 goals, 31 conceded. Not much to go on here.
What does interest me is the clean sheets and failed to score. Both teams have failed to score just 17% of the time. That's going to change tonight, this is just way too low.
With a goal fest promised and failed to score stats which are very low I'm looking at the following.
Under 1.5 goals - 4.8 (Betfair)
BTTS No - 2.6 (Betfair)
The problem with these stats and the Betis drawing stat highlighted above, is that for there to be a Betis draw, under 1.5 and BTTS No to occur, then it could only be 0-0 (which is 16.5 on Betfair).
Mallorca need to win tonight so this makes the 0-0 likelihood even more remote I think, but certainly I can entertain the Under 1.5 goals market.
The biggest reasonable outcome then is the under 1.5 goals at 4.8, so this would be my choice £20.
WIN
Let's have a look.
Here's the raw data. Mallorca's goal tally at home is around 2.9 a game whilst Betis is at a whopping 3.77. So the data points to goals, and lots of them.
Goals per game data combined = 3.35.
Now let's have a look at the head to head. Mallorca home have a 17-5-5-7 return, whilst Betis away have 17-7-2-8. Not much to take out of that although a key figure there is that Betis have only drawn TWICE away from home this season. A draw between the two sides is 3.5 (Bet365) or 3.65 on the exchanges.
If we take the biggest victory and biggest defeat out of the equation for both we are left with Mallorca 15 games, 19 goals, 23 conceded. Betis are left with 23 goals, 31 conceded. Not much to go on here.
What does interest me is the clean sheets and failed to score. Both teams have failed to score just 17% of the time. That's going to change tonight, this is just way too low.
With a goal fest promised and failed to score stats which are very low I'm looking at the following.
Under 1.5 goals - 4.8 (Betfair)
BTTS No - 2.6 (Betfair)
The problem with these stats and the Betis drawing stat highlighted above, is that for there to be a Betis draw, under 1.5 and BTTS No to occur, then it could only be 0-0 (which is 16.5 on Betfair).
Mallorca need to win tonight so this makes the 0-0 likelihood even more remote I think, but certainly I can entertain the Under 1.5 goals market.
The biggest reasonable outcome then is the under 1.5 goals at 4.8, so this would be my choice £20.
WIN
Let's have a look.