Chinese S League, 1pm. Shandong, +1.5, 1.91.
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Where do we start with this!?! To say this game had it all would be to say that Leonardo Da Vinci liked painting. And from a betting point of view highlights the unbelievable pitfalls us punters (and particularly me) have to put up with on a daily basis. I had been keeping an eye on the game whilst another was watching England and the slow mounting up of cards got my interest piqued for the over 1.5 market. On 60 minutes, the hosts were 1-0 down and there were 3 yellow cards in the match. Then the game went absolutely nuts. By the 77th minute there were 7 yellows and 3 reds, two to the home side. I entered the over 1.5 market at evens on around 82 minutes as Petrolul were by now (even though down to 9) peppering the Gaz goals. Shot after shot after shot after shot. But nothing. It just wasn't happening so I cashed out on around 89 minutes with a small loss. Then more carnage. Past the 90 minute mark there were more yellows and reds and the game entered the 103rd minute of play.
Copa Libertadors 2nd Leg, 11.30pm. Newells win, 1.99. Cashed out - £4 loss Backed 2.16, 6.50 penalty shoot out +3.54
If Hiroshima x Kashiwa was not fixed, this world is about to end. How did that one end 0-0. How!? #matchfixing — João Borba (@jmopborba) May 29, 2013
Hiroshima win 2.00 (cashed out for 1/2 loss) Urawa Over 2.5 goals, 1.9 Urawa over 1.5 in play 2.66
Egypt Division 1, 2.30pm. Ismaily should have enough at evens to see off Arab Contractors. Ismaily are as tight as can be this term, scoring 19 and conceding just 8 in 14 games. Arab Contractors have been more open conceding 18, so I make the home side firm favourites. Ismaily 2.00 win .
French Open, 10am. Quite simply, I fancy Halep to go far in this tournament. She has the form and the self belief to do it it's just a question of whether she can up where she currently is to the next level, and this means beating tricky opponents like Novarro early doors in tournaments. This really shouldn't be a round one clash as both players are very good. Halep's ranking is way below where her ability lies mainly due to a huge first round run which has included on a regular basis, top ten opponents. It's catch 22, but she needs to beat these women to have easier draws going forward. Suarez Novarro is a very competent player who knows her game inside out. She'll battle to the end and although I feel she is more limited than Halep she has the experience. One thing that may go in Halep's favour though is youth; if Halep can drag the match along then I think Novarro may tire from around the halfway point of the first set. Halep at 2.00.
There's a lot of furore at Madrid with dressing room issues and the imminent departure of Jose Mourinho. They haven't had a great run of form lately either drawing and losing more than winning. The Copa Del Rey was just one of those things there, something that was pre-ordained by the footy gods, Madrid could have been 3 up before Atletico hit back. In short, that just wasn't to be. Backers of Sociedad will point to excellent form and 'motivation'. I'll be happy to concede my angle if they win, but I really think motivation is over-rated. A team just doesn't suddenly become gods because they 'have to win' a game of football. Madrid are over evens with the +0AH, and that's where I'm sticking my cash.
http://www1.skysports.com/boxing/news/12183/8735624/Carl-Froch-defeats-Mikkel-Kessler-on-points-in-epic-rematch
China Super League action (12.35pm) and Guizhou are out to as much as 2.75 for the win. For the +0AH we can have Guizhou at 2.03.
I'm going to Lay Velez at 2.16 . Their form dipping in and out of the Copa Libertadores has been very poor. They have won just two league games from 14 whilst Quilmes have lost only 3 league games so far this season. Velez are 19th and struggling to Quilmes 7th and I reckon that Quilmes will be able to eek out at least a draw.
These are my fancies today. Jamie Hampton is on court very soon and the way she came back and beat Flipkens yesterday proves she has enough steel and bottle, it's whether she has the ability against Vinci to beat her. Judging from her focused after match answers though it seems that Hampton is hell bent on revenging her 2-1 defeat by Vinci in the Fed Cup in February. 3.5 looks lovely odds for an upset. Pablo Andujar plays Gael Monfils at around 3pm, and I reckon Andujar could give Monfils all sorts of issues. He is very solid on clay and has some nice scalps to his name recently. And finally tonight we have Arles-Le Havre. Le Havre's recent form, particularly away is enough for me to fancy the +0 AH at 2.075.
Copa Libertadores, Quarter Final Leg 1, and this game will be a tight tense affair if the home side has anything to do with it. Both sides will be more than happy with damage limitation from the first leg. Boca, because they are the underdogs and know that Newells will have home advantage for the killer 2nd leg, and Newells because their record against Boca is not that good. I'm tempted to go for the under 1.5 and I think that's about right. Under 1.5 goals, 2.6.
The first leg of the Eredevisie Europa Play-Off Final and Utrecht are very outwardly priced. They are currently around 6.25 to win the match, and you can get them for 2.10 with a +1 AH. I can see them getting a draw here so this I feel offers a very good bet. Utrecht +1 AH, 2.10 .
Flipkens gubbed @ 1.01 after huge collapse. Hampton matched as high as 100! #TennisTrading — Sports Trading Life (@followSTL) May 23, 2013
The second Serie B play-off game features Novara v Empoli. Empoli are the better side and have the form behind them going into this game. Novara have the better head to head record, but in a game of numbers Empoli will be due a result and will need a draw to claim the bet. Empoli, 1.69 +0.5 .
IPL knock out game so it's all to play for. Shane Watson is the key for Rajasthan and he's been quiet on the batting front the last two games. Class doesn't stay down though for too long and he's due a display. Rajasthan 1.81 .
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/sport/wrestling/4937937/Mick-McManus-dies-aged-93.html
The AFC game today was going to be evaded, but a late drift from evens to 2.28 has piqued my interest. Kashiwa at 1.67, DNB.
Some early thoughts then. Really looking forward to the AFC games today and we kick off with Kashiwa v Jeonbuk (11am). I'm staying clear of this though as the hosts lead 2-0 from the first leg. Anything can happen and still Kashiwa progress so it's a wide berth, it all depends on the tactics of the Kashiwa coach who may play a counter game and opt for a low scorer or draw. Guangzhou-Mariners does interest me however. With the hosts taking a 2-1 first leg lead for the 2nd half of their play off the Mariners are very much in the tie. Central Coast are 9.2 to win the match, which I find a little strange. Therefore this gives me a greater chance through the handicaps, and with Central Coast Mariners +1.5 at 1.78, I think represents a good bet. I also like the look of +0 for Livorno (2.26 Unibet) away to Brescia in the Serie B play offs. Livorno already have a good record over Brescia. Livorno were only two points off 2nd and were 18 points better off than Brescia in the final
Dr Freebets (@drfreebets) tweeted at 9:19 AM on Tue, May 21, 2013: If a Spurs fan bet an Arsenal fan £1 in 1995 that Spurs would finish higher and they kept doing double or quits, he would now owe £262,144. (https://twitter.com/drfreebets/status/336758208171487232) Get the official Twitter app at https://twitter.com/download
Game 2 in the underdog betting system, game one last night was a winner with Mallorca and Betis coming in at under 1.5 goal at 4.8! Raw stats time - Smart money says that Seoul are red hot favourites. 3 wins in 6 with just 1 loss. Beijing have only won ONE of their last six games with two losses and three draws. Seoul's goals scored and conceded tally equals 4.33 at home in the AFC and 4.33 home in the K-League. Impressively high stuff. Rather surprisingly then over 2.5 can be found at near enough 2.1! One reason may be that of Beijing's defensive record in the AFC away from home, 3 games 3 nil-nils. In the league they boast a dead on 2.00 average from 4 games. Key stats that stick out then - Seoul have failed to score ZERO times in the league so far this season and ZERO times in the AFC at home. Beijing have only won ONE game in their last six, at home to Changchum. In a combined goals scored in both the AFC away and their league away they have scored just
It's an analysis game tonight. The smart money obviously says either BTTS or over 2.5, but I'm trying to look at a different approach and that is to back the unexpected. I'm going to run through a number of games for analysis and this is my numero uno. Or to put it another way, game number one. Here's the raw data. Mallorca's goal tally at home is around 2.9 a game whilst Betis is at a whopping 3.77. So the data points to goals, and lots of them. Goals per game data combined = 3.35. Now let's have a look at the head to head. Mallorca home have a 17-5-5-7 return, whilst Betis away have 17-7-2-8. Not much to take out of that although a key figure there is that Betis have only drawn TWICE away from home this season . A draw between the two sides is 3.5 (Bet365) or 3.65 on the exchanges. If we take the biggest victory and biggest defeat out of the equation for both we are left with Mallorca 15 games, 19 goals, 23 conceded. Betis are left with 23 goals, 3
K H (@keitthpunter) tweeted at 3:12 PM on Mon, May 20, 2013: “@BryanAGraham: How the Premier League table would look if the 265 shots that hit the woodwork had counted as goals. http://t.co/MeZjaF1wHv ” (https://twitter.com/keitthpunter/status/336484536403763200) Get the official Twitter app at https://twitter.com/download
LOST Russian Division 1, 11pm. £40, Under 2.5 goals, 1.52 (Marathon Bet)
LOST MLS, 10pm. £20, Kansas City, 2.4 (Bet Victor) Hmm. What can I say here, yes Kansas are away, but they are playing DC United, them of 5 goals scored, 19 conceded in 10 games. DC United have won one game in their conference whilst Kansas won their last away game 1-0 and have won 3 away games from 6. This alone is putting me right in favour of Kansas.
WON Serie A, 7.45pm. £20, Udinese, 2.38 (188 Bet) Inter Milan have had a shocking season, more so because of injuries and misfortune and this I feel will be a last whimper to mid table obscurity. Udinese on the other hand have hit a purple patch and will look to finish the season in the Europa places which a win would guarantee.
WON Spanish Primera, 6.00pm. £20, Over 2.5 goals, 1.91 (William Hill) With news of Deportivo winning to leapfrog Zaragoza putting them into the relegation zone, Zaragoza must come out of the blocks here tonight and go for it. This game could be a belter as Athletic will look to counter them.
WON Dutch Eredivisie Play-Off, 3.30pm, Belgian Play Off, 1.30pm. £20 Double, Utrecht BTTS/Anderlecht BTTS, 2.47 (Bet365)
LOST English Premier League, 4pm. £20, Liverpool win, Man United win, Newcastle Over 2.5 goals, 3.49 (Bet365)
Live Tennis (@livetennis) tweeted at 7:05 PM on Fri, May 17, 2013: Earlier today we saw Simona Halep's remarkable run continue! She saved match pts to take down Jelena Jankovic http://t.co/gyhz519g9b (https://twitter.com/livetennis/status/335456161543364610) Get the official Twitter app at https://twitter.com/download
LOSS ATP Rome, 11am. £20, Over 2.5 sets, 2.37 (Bet365) Benoit Paire is the firm favourite here after beating Juan Monaco and Del Potro along the way. But I've always had the impression that Paire is flakey, and can easily have an off day against those he should beat. Granollers is 2.62 for the match which I think is a very enticing price. But I'm going to play it a little safer and say that this match will go into a third set. ANALYSIS Granollers was a disgrace to be frank. 6-1, 6-0. Shit list.
WON WTA Rome, @2pm. £20, Simona Halep, 2.38 (MarathonBet) Halep's recent surge in form has been nothing short of remarkable. She beat Radwanska, and then yesterday beat Vinci, two very impressive scalps. She has a good first serve, good solid ground strokes, can vary the tempo of the game and doesn't seem to miss much. I really do think that this is a key match for her, can she make the step up from being comfortable early in tournaments to being a big name under the spotlight? Jankovic dismantled Li Na in epic style yesterday, but Na was truly atrocious. And by atrocious, I mean truly, truly atrocious. I think it was something like 60 odd unforced errors and she really did struggle to keep the ball in the court. Jankovic is good, don't get me wrong, but Halep has the staying power, resilience and youth on her side to go the distance in any match. Halep I believe, also has that 'bottle' factor that I look for when betting. She will never give up. I am really l
LOSS WTA Rome, @ 11.30am. £20, Roberta Vinci -1.5 games, 1.83. First off, the average odds across the board has this as 2.10 Vinci to 1.66 Vinci. By adding in the -1.5 for Vinci we immediately give ourselves better value, 1.83. Now, the only way Vinci can lose this bet on the handicap if she wins is a 7-6, 6-7, 7-6, which is highly unlikely. Women cannot hold serve for shit generally and also buckle under pressure much more in the closing stages of sets. So I've settled for 1.83. Onto the actual match. Vinci had a few problems in her last encounter with Burnett, but came through it in straight sets nevertheless. She's lost two out of her last 11 matches on clay and I think more good performances will come. Halep has a decent enough clay record of late, but she has played those ranked well down the pecking order. The class of Vinci should come through in straight sets here, possibly around the 6-4, 6-3 mark. ANALYSIS What an amazing performance from the person I ba
For the next 10 days, Chelsea's Fernando Torres is a reigning World Cup, European Championship, Champions League & Europa League winner #CFC — BBC Sport (@BBCSport) May 15, 2013
WIN Copa Libertadores 2nd Leg, 11.15pm. £20, Newells +0 AH, 2.050 This one is basically quite short and sweet. Velez will have home advantage and that's about all I can give them in their favour. Yes they will be a threat particularly looking to attack Newells on the break, but I simply cannot see Newells going out on a whimper being 1-0 down from the first leg. Speaking of which, let's have a look at that first leg again - It was quite remarkable. In the entire match, Newells had 20 shots overall, 8 of which were on target, but they just couldn't breach the Velez keeper. They also had more corners and more possession. The draw is covered by the AH, so I think with Newells needing a victory the game will be expansive and they will have to push for goals being 1-0 down, which I reckon they will achieve.
LOSS WTA Rome, 3.10pm. £20, Oprandi, 2.12. I feel a little uneasy about backing against one of my safe bets in Novarro, but I feel the demolition by Oprandi of Pavlyuchenkova tips the scales in her favour. Let's have some background. In Portugal Oprandi won three games including a defeat of Kuznetsova before being derailed in three sets by Pavlyuchenkova. After winning the first set 6-0, she lost the next two 6-3, 6-1. Most players may have crumpled after that, at least for a few matches or so, but in the very next match she drew Pavlyuchenkova again, where she demolished her opponent 6-2, 6-0. This shows not only that she is in great form, but that she is developing a mental toughness. Suarez Novarro is a fine player and I like her a lot, but she's lost 2/4 (including a straights loss to Pavlyuchenkova), and won the last match 2-1 v Petrova which lasted two and a half hours yesterday. Whilst she is a battler no doubt, I feel at 2.12 Oprandi is plenty value here.
A small wager was placed on Nastassja Burnett to win a set against Roberta Vinci. Vinci wiped the floor her fellow Italian first set winning it 6-1. But Burnett showed AGAIN, just how hard sports betting is and just how to throw away the a set of tennis, the professional way. At 3-2 up in the 2nd set, Burnett went 0-40 up to secure three break points. Vinci then won the next five points. Then again at 4-3 up, Burnett went 0-40 up again.....and guess what.....Vinci won the next five points again! Then rather unsurprisingly, the first break point that Vinci secured after this collapse of mammoth proportions, she took, taking an advantage break to lead 5-4 and then serving out the match 6-1, 6-4. Burnett took just ONE of NINE break points, and as stated, six of those came in two games when she was up 0-40. Vinci took 4/6. As the dust settled and Vinci strode off the court people who didn't witness this would have assumed a spanking. But it highlights once again, that even with k
WON - Kashiwa 2-0 Jeonbuk v Kashiwa, 11pm. £40, Kashiwa +0 AH, 2.3. I'm just feeling that the odds for Kashiwa represent decent enough value on the +0 AH. Sure, Jeonbuk have a very good home record and their last five games has yielded two wins and three draws. Their last game was an away draw at Chunnam, 2-2, so it shows that they can be breached recently. Kashiwa have won their last three games though, and have only conceded 1 goal in that time, and I just feel they are timing their run quite well. Of their last 6 AFC games, they have won 4 and drawn two whilst Jeonbuk have more of a mixed bag with more draws. The heads to heads are quite interesting reading too. It was last year, but there was a 5-1 win and a 2-0 win for Kashiwa, the former was home and the latter away.
Yesterday, one of my recommendations was an Arsenal/Homburg double. Arsenal came in like a good 'un last night with a crushing 4-1 win over Wigan. All to the script so far. But my other game lost, Homburg conceding three goals in a 3-3 draw, at home to lowly Alzenau. What made matters worse is that they were 3-1 down going into the last phase of the game. Yes Homburg conceded four the previous game, but that was to second placed Elversberg. Alzenau on the other hand had only scored 1 goal in their previous five games! To put it succinctly, it shouldn't have happened. Then, we have Palmeiras v Tijuana last night in the Copa Libertadores. Palmeiras were as high as evens before kick off. They had won 10 of their last 11 fixtures at home whilst Tijuana had only won 1 out of their previous 9 away games. Here's the game if your interested - Tijuana won the game 2-1. How in the world do you predict this game? If you are a statistician then where do you go from here. Is it
Arrogant, vein, self centred no manners ignorant just some of Mancini's daily traits really made going into work a grind!! #karma — stephen aziz (@steaziz_kitman) May 13, 2013
LOSS - Arsenal 4-1, Homburg 3-3 English Premier League, 7.45pm. German Regionalliga Sudwest, 6pm. £20 Double, Arsenal/Homburg, 2.24. I'm fairly confident of this bet landing in a double. Wigan will be tired from their excursions in the FA Cup game, you cannot simply bounce back after the mental fatigue that they would have gone through and not have some scars. It's only a few days rest and to try and get back up for this vital game will be very difficult. Wigan's squad is fully stretched I would imagine and they didn't concede a goal against City in 90 minutes. I think this bodes fairly bad. Wigan are down there for a reason, and to string together two consecutive excellent defensive displays against City and Arsenal is asking too much. Arsenal should pass the ball around for fun, and I see a bit of a cricket score to be honest. Homburg in the German Regionalliga are 12th to Alzenau's 19th. Homburg have drawn their last two home games to top four sides, so th
http://www.thenational.ae/sport/cricket/ipl-kieron-pollard-and-mumbai-punch-out-hyderabad
IPL, 3.30pm. (In Play) £20, Mumbai, 2.10. Mumbai are chasing 179 to win which is in and around the first innings average at the ground. Interestingly, Hyderabad only used 3 wickets up in setting the total and so I expect Mumbai to push the boat out with a faster scoring rate knowing what they have to reach and how many more risks they can take.
ATP Rome, @ 1pm. £20, Klizan, 1.88. 1.88 can be found with Unibet, and I wasn't going to pass this up. On Bet365 the odds for Klizan are 1.72, which I feel is about where it should be, but on Unibet it's an evenly matched 1.88. Considering the last time they met only last month, with a Klizan straight sets victory on the Barcelona clay, I'd say that represents very good value. The only downside I see to this bet is that Montanes has had 4 qualifying matches to get to this point and so he may feel more at home with the surroundings and the pace of the courts. But saying that, if Klizan is anything like a professional, he should work these things out much quicker once in the match.
German 2 Bundesliga, 12.30pm. £40, FSV +0, 1.95. I think these odds are astounding. FSV have won 56% of their home games this season in the league and have only lost once since the middle of March. The last time they lost at home was against Ingolstadt, 2-0, on the 3rd of February. They got decimated last game away to Kaiserslautern so their hopes of going up may be dashed, but there is still hope. If they win their next two games and results go their way then they could secure that playoff place. Bochum are 4 points above the drop zone now and I feel they are safe. They have given everything winning their last four games, but the foot may just come off the gas a little now and tiredness may creep in as they have surely punched over and above their weight the last few games. Yes they are four from four, but the last two away games have been against Sandhausen (who everyone beats) and Cottbus who were on the beach. Bochum have won just under a third of games away from home. What ha
Spanish Primera Division, 9pm. £20, Real Madrid, 1.72. **LATEST** £50 Real Madrid, 1.90. The dosh is on Real tonight. Espanyol have been inconsistent of late and Real have won 4 out of their last 5 games with one draw in the middle. Their last loss was 6 games ago to Grenada. Espanyol have lost two on the bounce and will be lacking a little in confidence which is not what you want when Real are coming to town.
French Ligue 2 experiment tonight, let's have a look. These are the fixtures tonight. By a home v home goal ratio this is what the predictions are - Game 1 - Draw. £10 @ 3.20 Game 2 - Draw. £10 @ 3.20 Game 3 - Home. No bet, odds are 1.5 Game 4 - Home. £10 @ 2.50 Game 5 - Home. No bet, odds are 1.5 Game 6 - Draw. £10 @ 3.40 Game 7 - Draw. £10 @ 3.25 Game 8 - Home. £10 @ 2.20 The goal ratio probability for the games are as follows, home team positive, away team edge negative 0.23, 0.16, 1.24, 0.77 , 0.89, 0.42, 0.35, 0.94 . Bets of the night would be the two home games in bold. This would represent home team advantage at over evens, with a +0.77 goal expectation (home side) and +0.94. Let's wait for the results.
On Afren. Afrend was doing jolly good through January to February hitting the 156 mark. Since then it has had jolts up and down with a downward trend, not withstanding the economic issues which hit share prices for six when the news about Cyprus came about. Since its last month low of 122, the trend has been upward, even after THREE downward dips. The 20 day EMA is upward trending whilst the 40 and 60 are leveling out. I feel there's much more to come from Afren and I project it will hit and maybe surpass 156 within two months. This will give a profit of around £200, as I'm in at £10pp from 137. At this stage I'll wait a touch longer to move the stop position to a profit of £200 and wait til it either rises more or hits the stop.
These are the type of games that I need to start focusing on. Prior to this game both teams had a win-draw-loss score of 2-1-2, and with the plus one handicap for Torpedo this seemed great value at evens. I had some success with backing the underdog on AH before, and I think it's a tactic that I need to look into again. I think I've going to continue basing my theory on the last five games and that the backer has to have an equal or better record than the opposition. This could be in the AH if the underdog is statistically inferior or on the DNB if you're backing an away side team higher placed in the league.
Gimeno-Traver v Pablo Andujar £5 Gimeno-Traver @ 2.25. Kevin Anderson v Thomas Berdych £5 Kevin Anderson +3.5 games @ 1.9.
WIN 1-2 Argentinian Torneo Final, 12.05am £20, BTTS, 2.10. £20, Over 2.5 goals, 2.20. Two bets from the Argentinian league tonight, both reliant on goals. Velez haven't been the most score free side in the league, indeed they are normally about as dull as you can get preferring a more defensive approach. But I feel that they need to press on and try and win some points as they are languishing near the bottom. This may force their hand into playing a more attacking game, especially at home. Tigre on the other hand, away from home most certainly, like to try their arm out. They have a 3.8 goals scored and conceded combination away from home, with 80% of matches resulting in over 2.5 goals. They don't just shut up shop against the big teams either, as they have a 3-1 loss and a 3-2 loss to Newells and River Plate respectively. Either way, if Velez try and play a counter game and get the first goal then Tigre won't stop. And if Tigre score the first, then Velez will h
Laura Robson choked in magnificent style losing out to Azarenka after being 5-2 up in the final set. This could only happen to me, or rather my betting. But that's another story. Here's this story - These are supposed to be Professional Tennis Players. Look at the service percentages! I mean fucking hell!! Both Ivanovic and Robson, as professional tennis players, have a first serve percentage of 50%. That's just outrageous. The second serve, particularly of Robson was also real powder puff stuff. I mean 'tapping' it over the net. And to further make matters worse, there were 21 double faults from these horrendous serves, one of which fittingly happened the last hits of the match from....yes you guessed it....Robson. I mean Jesus, these girls need to get their act together. It really is a poor standard.
