Kashiwa v Jeonbuk

The AFC game today was going to be evaded, but a late drift from evens to 2.28 has piqued my interest. Kashiwa at 1.67, DNB.

Seoul v Beijing Guoan, AFC Champions League Play Off, 11.30am.

Game 2 in the underdog betting system, game one last night was a winner with Mallorca and Betis coming in at under 1.5 goal at 4.8!

Raw stats time -

Smart money says that Seoul are red hot favourites. 3 wins in 6 with just 1 loss. Beijing have only won ONE of their last six games with two losses and three draws.

Seoul's goals scored and conceded tally equals 4.33 at home in the AFC and 4.33 home in the K-League. Impressively high stuff. Rather surprisingly then over 2.5 can be found at near enough 2.1!

One reason may be that of Beijing's defensive record in the AFC away from home, 3 games 3 nil-nils. In the league they boast a dead on 2.00 average from 4 games.

Key stats that stick out then -

Seoul have failed to score ZERO times in the league so far this season and ZERO times in the AFC at home. Beijing have only won ONE game in their last six, at home to Changchum. In a combined goals scored in both the AFC away and their league away they have scored just 3 goals in 7 games. In the AFC, Beijing have THREE draws out of THREE all nil-nil. 

Conclusions for backing against the stats -

I'm taking out the draw, the likelihood of three consecutive draws in the AFC from Beijing is too high. Seoul's goals scored and conceded tally in all competitions is high, they generally score. They have failed to score no times out of nine games at home and Beijing have a poor scoring record away from home.

Beijing to win then at 6.6 seems like the highest odds bet that opposes the stats in a zero sum game. (0-1 to Beijing is also at 18.00)
£20
LOSS

AFC Champions League (Bet 5)

WON - Kashiwa 2-0
Jeonbuk v Kashiwa, 11pm.
£40, Kashiwa +0 AH, 2.3.

I'm just feeling that the odds for Kashiwa represent decent enough value on the +0 AH. Sure, Jeonbuk have a very good home record and their last five games has yielded two wins and three draws. Their last game was an away draw at Chunnam, 2-2, so it shows that they can be breached recently. Kashiwa have won their last three games though, and have only conceded 1 goal in that time, and I just feel they are timing their run quite well.

Of their last 6 AFC games, they have won 4 and drawn two whilst Jeonbuk have more of a mixed bag with more draws. The heads to heads are quite interesting reading too. It was last year, but there was a 5-1 win and a 2-0 win for Kashiwa, the former was home and the latter away.

AFC Championship - Morning picks

Kashiwa v Guizhou Renhe, 11am.
£10, Over 2.5 goals, 1.9

This is a game that Guizhou must win in order to have any chance of progressing. They are currently second, but if Suwon win against a very jaded Central Coast side which is likely, then they will be stranded on 4 points to Suwon's 6 points going into the last round of games. Guizhou have to throw the dice here. This should play into the hands of overs as Kashiwa are top and are capable of scoring multiple goals. This could be a thriller and at 1.9 it seems better than a flip of a coin to land.

Suwon v Central Coast, 11.30am
£10, Over 2.5 goals, 2.16

I find it absolutely amazing that Central Coast had their grand final game two days ago, simply astounding. The euphoria of that win and then the travelling must take an effect here, I'd be amazed if it didn't. They may then have already shot their bolt with the season high and with Suwon home and needing the points to try and chase down Guizhou, there will be goals as legs tire and concentration wanes. I'd be surprised if Central Coast could muster two goals, but two goals or three from Suwon looks likely, so I'm taking a punt on overs. Suwon simply need to throw people forward here, drawing isn't good enough.