Copa Libertadores Final - Atletico 2-2 Olimpia (Normal Time), Atletico win on Penalties

Stalemate in Copa Libertadores odds

At the moment the bookies cannot separate the two sides, Olimpia and Atletico MG, for the first leg of the Copa Libertadores. 2.92 Olimpia, 2.86 Atletico and 3.2 Draw is where the action stands at. Haven't got a clue as to how this one will go, but personally I would reckon the draw is probably the best bet to go for. First leg matches are usually quite cagey affairs, with both teams looking to lay the foundations for whatever needs to be done for leg two.

Newells v Boca Juniors

Copa Libertadors 2nd Leg, 11.30pm.
Newells win, 1.99.
Cashed out - £4 loss
Backed 2.16, 6.50 penalty shoot out
 +3.54

Boca Juniors v Newells

Copa Libertadores, Quarter Final Leg 1, and this game will be a tight tense affair if the home side has anything to do with it. Both sides will be more than happy with damage limitation from the first leg. Boca, because they are the underdogs and know that Newells will have home advantage for the killer 2nd leg, and Newells because their record against Boca is not that good. I'm tempted to go for the under 1.5 and I think that's about right. Under 1.5 goals, 2.6.

Velez Sarsfield v Newells Old Boys (Bet 8)

WIN
Copa Libertadores 2nd Leg, 11.15pm.
£20, Newells +0 AH, 2.050

This one is basically quite short and sweet. Velez will have home advantage and that's about all I can give them in their favour. Yes they will be a threat particularly looking to attack Newells on the break, but I simply cannot see Newells going out on a whimper being 1-0 down from the first leg. Speaking of which, let's have a look at that first leg again -

It was quite remarkable. In the entire match, Newells had 20 shots overall, 8 of which were on target, but they just couldn't breach the Velez keeper. They also had more corners and more possession. The draw is covered by the AH, so I think with Newells needing a victory the game will be expansive and they will have to push for goals being 1-0 down, which I reckon they will achieve.

Sports betting - Tijuana show it's an impossible job

Yesterday, one of my recommendations was an Arsenal/Homburg double. Arsenal came in like a good 'un last night with a crushing 4-1 win over Wigan. All to the script so far. But my other game lost, Homburg conceding three goals in a 3-3 draw, at home to lowly Alzenau. What made matters worse is that they were 3-1 down going into the last phase of the game. Yes Homburg conceded four the previous game, but that was to second placed Elversberg. Alzenau on the other hand had only scored 1 goal in their previous five games! To put it succinctly, it shouldn't have happened.

Then, we have Palmeiras v Tijuana last night in the Copa Libertadores. Palmeiras were as high as evens before kick off. They had won 10 of their last 11 fixtures at home whilst Tijuana had only won 1 out of their previous 9 away games.

Here's the game if your interested -

Tijuana won the game 2-1. How in the world do you predict this game? If you are a statistician then where do you go from here. Is it a case of backing things on hunches and feelings throwing all 'other factors' into play such as the tournament played, the time of day, past history etc, or do you keep ploughing on backing the stats? In a nutshell, these two games; Homburg v Alzenau and Palmeiras v Tijuana just highlight how difficult this game is to predict barring any insider knowledge.