Saturday preliminary footy bets

Hull +0.75, 2.05.
Sunderland +1.5, 1.87.
Fulham +0.5, 1.90.
Liverpool +0.75, 1.91.
Swansea +1.5, 1.83.
Villa, 1.95.
Newcastle, 1.78. 
Avellino DNB, 1.98.
West Ham +1, 1.84.
Zulte +1, 1.84.
Varese 2.16. 
Siena DNB, 2.08.

Saturday football bets

A decent day yesterday saw us back into the £300s for December, and today I'm going bumper on the day. 22 bets, and here they are.

Newcastle 2.42.
West Ham +1.5, 1.82.
Norwich +0.5, 1.84.
Hull +0.5, 2.01.
Aston Villa +0.5, 1.81
Fulham +1.5, 1.95.
Leicester +0.5, 1.84.
Nantes +0.5, 2.01.
Tours +0.25, 1.92.
Hertha +1.5, 1.90.
Mainz +0.5, 1.86.
Appollon +2.5, 1.72.
Udinese DNB, 1.80.
Napoli, 2.16.
Crotone, 1.96.
Empoli, 2.48.
Sevilla +0.5, 2.03. 
Vitesse, 1.89.
Astra DNB, 2.00.
Levante +2.5, 1.74.
Sociedad DNB, 2.00.
Eibar DNB, 2.39. 

Saint Etienne v Toulouse, some tennis thoughts

Have they enough to back?

Did anyone see that Zulte-Wigan last night? How on Earth didn't Zulte at least win that one? It just highlights once again the perils of betting and why I am sticking to giving suggestions and analysis only. The stress and strains of day to day betting is just too much in this current climate, but I am still happy to share any thoughts/suggestions with you which you can do what you like with!

Saint Etienne's home record is, in the main, very good. Out of the last 20 home matches they have lost/drawn 8 times though a number of those have been in Europe/Cup matches. Toulouse away have won/drawn 12 matches from the last 20 games.The battle lines are drawn at 1.80, 3.25, 5.00.

If you look at where Toulouse have picked up points away from home from last season, they perfectly represented where they were in the pecking order. Finishing 10th, they had nine teams above them and they lost 7/9 games away from home. One draw was against Montpellier and the other...against Saint Etienne funnily enough.

Saint Etienne had a mixed bag against the top, which you'd expect, but were very good only losing one and drawing two against the bottom half teams whilst at home. Toulouse are -4 goals and Etienne +4 goals, although you could argue that Saint Etienne have had a generous start to the season fixture wise versing four of the sides ranked 15th or lower.

Interestingly, Toulouse have drawn two matches against some top sides; once against Marseille 1-1 and they managed to snuff out Monaco 0-0 away. That may have been the joker in the pack match though for the season trend as they have played two other league games away and lost to Bastia 2-1 and Valenciennes 3-0.

Another interesting stat is that last season Toulouse were masters of the unders. Away from home, almost 70% of their matches came in at under 2.5 goals. They will probably look to contain the home side for long periods. And furthermore to that, whether Toulouse played home or away, they had a high percentage of 0-0 draws at half time game state. At home they achieved goalless parity 9 times (47%) whilst away they achieved the same feat 8 times (42%). As an edge if you're adamant about backing the home team you could wait in-play for odds closer to evens.

A lot of time for this boy!

In the tennis, Meusburger v Zhang could be a coin flip. Zhang has the obvious home advantage that was so key in seeing Robson lose to Zheng yesterday, but Meusburger's hit a purple patch in form in her career, and it wouldn't surprise me if she wins here.

One match that interests me highly is Tursunov-Sousa. Sousa is a player that I like a lot and seems completely fearless at the moment. He's combative, spiky with no little talent. Sousa is +4.5 games at 1.80 with 365, which you could probably get better odds closer to the event with other bookies. This opens up a tump of possibilities including Sousa losing in straight sets 6-4 6-4. I believe that Sousa could take a set which would leave the handicap almost a foregone conclusion. 

Robson flatters once more. Celtic win. Haase value and watch out for Thiem

Huge service weakness is again a major problem

Laura Robson once again crashed and burned this time to Petra Kvitova on the hard surface of Calsbad. I think people need a reality check about Laura and they need it now. She is a decent player, who, if she works very hard from here on in could possibly be a top16 player. But consistency is her Achilles' heel, and you simply cannot afford to be as erratic as she more often than not.

Yesterday she was swept 6-1 6-2 and her serve was once again an area of great concern. The problem with the serve is that it is highly mental, once in a rally players can rely on instinct and natural ability so the brain doesn't have to be as stringent in its thought processes.

The serve at the moment for Laura is one huge mental block, each and every time she takes the line, bounces the ball and attempts to land it. It's now becoming almost an event in itself, and the gap between points only ensures that there is more mental calculations and more time to think about failure than simply just being in a point.

It is for this reason that Robson is still way behind the other top girls and a major reason why I think she will continue to flatter to deceive. Joe Public needs a good shake up and they need to see sense on this, as all this Robson for Slams talk is way, way, premature.

Celtic won a narrow first leg clash against an absolutely awful Elfsborg and another reason to highlight the constant mis-placed thinking that other European Leagues are 'just as good' as the British stuff. Elfsborg were basically camped in their own 18 yard box for the whole of the match and were, in short, a bit of a disgrace.

Robin Haase looks over-priced at 2.37 against Verdasco today. I believe, from what I have picked up from some tipsters, that Haase has a pretty decent record against left-handers and also loves this tournament. In another match-up that takes my fancy, Thiem is 3.75 for the win. He is the home favourite, has been impressive and came through a tricky situation yesterday which will only put him in good stead for today. Montanes is around 1.25, so is obviously a hotty fave.

Back to winning ways. Tennis is still shite. AH underdog line is back. Atletico MG turn around Copa Libertadores

Again looks high at 1.94 v Pujol

Mixed fortune again across other sports, but a stonking day with the footy and particularly an old tactic I used to use to see me through this tough patch. The power of the AH underdog is not to be underestimated. In many cases, a team may have superior form and playing potential but will be (rightfully so in some cases) given the underdog status, especially if away from home. However, with the counter attack being a prevalent tactic in the modern game, and in a lot of occasions is more  potent than possession football, it leaves the door wide open for the win AND the draw. Straight wins/losses for teams have become hard to predict, with a lot of late goals scuppering a win either way. Yesterday, without looking at the stats, was probably a 8/10 tips won day, all on around the evens mark.

Tennis is still doing my head in I'm afraid. Just when you think you have your entry points sussed out for maximum value something pathetic happens. Yesterday Rhine Williams was up 6-2 in the first set tie break having been in no bother whatsoever serving wise for the entire set. He then failed to make any points in the next 6 points to land Hewitt the first set, the momentum and the match. Simply appalling choking. Tennis is getting a pathetic lottery and at the moment there is too much to be gained from football to try and broaden my sporting bets.

Just to highlight a few possible entry points though, Delbonis is around 1.94 to beat Granollers-Pujol. Don't forget Delbonis is on a run of 1 loss in 12 so the 1.94 looks mega appetizing. My hatred for Tipsarevic may have something to do with me wanting to oppose him against Robin Haase (2.37-1.53). I just don't rate Tipsarevic at all, he's a major choker and his form has been chronic.

And finally Atletico MG turned around a first leg 2-0 deficit, to win the game after being 0-0 at HT v Olimpia. They scored two in normal play, and then won the shootout. This was even more gratifying as my MG -1.25 bet sailed in as well as a Sending Off at 2.78 (Manzur)....great stuff!

Asia World Cup Qualification. South Korea v Uzbekistan. 12pm.

The top two in their group meet today and I'm banking on a rather cagey affair. South Korea will want no slip ups on their smooth road to qualifying and will see Uzbekistan as the greatest threat for a loss, so they will probably approach this game with more respect than any of the other matches they have played. Uzbekistan are no mugs and can score a goal. If they can score first then it brings the +1 bet as a firm favourite. The game lies somewhere between a draw and one goal home side win, so I think that Uzbekistan on the AH represents a decent chance of return.

Uzbekistan to beat South Korea +1AH (1.91)

Guangzhou v Shandong

Chinese S League, 1pm.
Shandong, +1.5, 1.91.

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid, La Liga, 7pm.

There's a lot of furore at Madrid with dressing room issues and the imminent departure of Jose Mourinho. They haven't had a great run of form lately either drawing and losing more than winning. The Copa Del Rey was just one of those things there, something that was pre-ordained by the footy gods, Madrid could have been 3 up before Atletico hit back. In short, that just wasn't to be.

Backers of Sociedad will point to excellent form and 'motivation'. I'll be happy to concede my angle if they win, but I really think motivation is over-rated. A team just doesn't suddenly become gods because they 'have to win' a game of football.

Madrid are over evens with the +0AH, and that's where I'm sticking my cash.

Some early thoughts. Central Coast, Livorno and WTA Kanepi

Some early thoughts then. Really looking forward to the AFC games today and we kick off with Kashiwa v Jeonbuk (11am). I'm staying clear of this though as the hosts lead 2-0 from the first leg. Anything can happen and still Kashiwa progress so it's a wide berth, it all depends on the tactics of the Kashiwa coach who may play a counter game and opt for a low scorer or draw.

Guangzhou-Mariners does interest me however. With the hosts taking a 2-1 first leg lead for the 2nd half of their play off the Mariners are very much in the tie. Central Coast are 9.2 to win the match, which I find a little strange. Therefore this gives me a greater chance through the handicaps, and with Central Coast Mariners +1.5 at 1.78, I think represents a good bet.

I also like the look of +0 for Livorno (2.26 Unibet) away to Brescia in the Serie B play offs. Livorno already have a good record over Brescia. Livorno were only two points off 2nd and were 18 points better off than Brescia in the final league standings.

Novara and Empoli play later which I may have some thoughts on this afternoon before kick off.

This one will have to be quick as it starts ASAP, but in the WTA Brussels event Kanepi is 1.55 to beat Cibulkova (9am) so I'm on her.

*£20 bets*

Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao (Bet 18)

WON
Spanish Primera, 6.00pm.
£20, Over 2.5 goals, 1.91 (William Hill)

With news of Deportivo winning to leapfrog Zaragoza putting them into the relegation zone, Zaragoza must come out of the blocks here tonight and go for it. This game could be a belter as Athletic will look to counter them.

Euro Double (Bet 17)

WON
Dutch Eredivisie Play-Off, 3.30pm, Belgian Play Off, 1.30pm.
£20 Double, Utrecht BTTS/Anderlecht BTTS, 2.47 (Bet365)

Footy Double

Cluj/Zamalek
£5 returns £10.73

French afternoon double

Monday footy. Singles and treble.

Sunday early fixtures

Saturday footy feast