Statistics are fine in doses but rules are made to be broken. Almeria v Villareal in focus. @jonnygrossmark

Stats, stats, and damned lies

Yesterday highlighted just why using statistics alone can be just as dangerous as betting off the cuff on instinct. Whilst I find @JonnyGrossmark and his work highly intriguing, by following a HT game state trend on this match would have seen you lose a bet; which it did to me.

Almeria were 2-1 up at HT against Villareal. Last season, out of 21 home matches, Almeria were winning at HT in 9 of those games, and went on to win all 9 of these games. So, Almeria with a game state when winning at HT had a winning ratio of 100%, from 9 occasions. 

Where Villareal is concerned, there were 3 occasions last season when they were losing at half time (away from home out of 21 games), and they didn't win a single game when trailing at HT (drew 1, lost 2).

SO....out of TWELVE games combined between the two sides, Almeria never lost when leading at half time and Villareal never won when losing at HT.

SO...GUESS WHAT HAPPENED!??!

That's right; Villareal came back from behind (losing 2-1 in the 83rd minute) to win the match 2-3 with a goal from does Santos 83, and Pereira 86.

Statistics are fine and can give you edges some of the time. The problem is obviously the odds change with a shifting game state and so you you have to win more bets at lower odds if you use in-play triggers. Then you factor in the one anomaly (like this) and you're left with a big loss. Can you imagine if a punter took the lay Villareal odds at HT in this, with ALL the data available pointing to it with the cushion of the draw as well as the win?

The jury's out for me. 

Statistics can provide an insight into the likelihood of what will happen. But if statistics were the only underlying factor then punters would be walking in the park with wins. What statistics don't reveal is the strikers mental state of mind, fall outs in the dressing room, the keeper not feeling too well, weather conditions etc etc.