Mug punters fall for United 'value', A Radwanska out, big day for Halep

Pressure will mount, fans will show colours

Yesterday saw Twitter go quiet; well not before kick off, but certainly after it. Mug punters who are obsessed with 'value' still would have felt that they had won their bets, even though Manchester United lost. Personally, I fancied the Merseyside outfit from the start, and whilst I might not have been brave enough to lump on a home win outright, I certainly would have wagered a lot on the DNB.

It's quite simple....it's time for Manchester United fans to wake up and smell the coffee! With each and every disappointing result that comes and goes pressure will be increased on the hapless Moyes and it will only be a matter of time before those brilliant United fans show their true colours. You see the modern generation would never have experienced destabilization, ups and downs, and the good and bad days that most football clubs go through. This will be one such season were resolve will be tested to the extreme. And I'm not sure the fans or Moyes will pass this test. The Bank of United is officially closed and it's time to start looking around for better bets this season. 

Na Li is doing just fine at the minute, she is compiling a game worthy of challenging the likes of Serena. Her major Achilles heel has been her unforced error count, something of which she has no doubt worked on. I've been critical of her in the past as you sometimes just don't know what Li is going to turn up, but at the moment she is looking good. Makarova has caused a huge upset, dumping Agnieszka Radwanska out, by a score of 6-4 6-4. The SP for the underdog was around 4.00 and I suspect Radwanska would have been heavily backed, especially in-play when trailing.

And it's a huge day for Halep who is playing the best tennis of her life. She plays Pennnetta who is also priced at 4.00. Halep massacred Kirilenko last match, and I suspect she'll be more than up for the job again today. She is playing an utterly fearless game and her self belief will see her through even the tightest of situations should she go down in the match. Halep's beauty at the moment is that she can wipe out all that's gone before if the match goes to a third set and usually strolls it with scores like 6-1, 6-2. Her mental toughness is huge.

Money maker Halep does it again, and yet again gives punters a range of winning odds

Halep has been a dream to punt on

The Queen of tennis punting ONCE AGAIN defied the odds to rake it in for me yesterday with a quite brilliant comeback against nemesis Carla Suarez Navarro. Quite bluntly, Simona Halep has been the biggest winner in terms of a singular betting entity in my entire betting history.

If you want more in depth information regarding why I rate her so highly then scroll through my blog or look at the label down the right hand side for keywords 'Simona' and 'Halep'; but for the purposes of here and now let me continue.

Yesterday she came into the match at around 1.36. But the beauty of Simona is that she is lightening slow out of the blocks most of the time. This gives punters a clear range of entry points, and mostly you can read her like a book. From 1.36, I took her personally at around 1.75, evens, 2.35, 2.75, 3.25 and finally at around 3.5. She lost the first set, and was down in the second, but this is the interesting thing with Simona; it's only THEN does she start playing. It's literally like she has to play half an hour before she wakes up. Yesterday, she raked in over £200 for me. Over the course of the season, primarily from May, Halep has recorded personal profits of over £1000. This is absolutely staggering.

I'm well open to the possibility that the bubble will burst now and again, and this is why going to the well once to often, especially now if you're into laws of averages, may be a move filled with caution. But there is absolutely no doubt, that Serena aside, Halep can turn a match against anyone.

Click on the table to the left to have a looksie at how Halep has performed since May in Rome.

So what is her edge? The edge comes with not being straight forward, but ultimately winning. She is a slow starter, or indeed loses a set, but the interesting thing is her mental capacity. Yesterday she was out of the door against Navarro and won. She was 3-1 down and 4-2 down in the second set after losing her serve for two consecutive games, but absolutely blitzed Navarro 6-1 in the final set. Her mental toughness is staggering. 

She was a set all against Stosur recently before blitzing her 6-2 in the final set. She was a set down to Bartoli, then won the final set 6-1 again. She was a set down to Hsieh before winning the next two 6-2 6-1. Meusburger; again 6-1 in the final set. The only real jot on the copybook is the Roland Garros match v Na Li, but this match was just insane anyway and I'm not sure anyone knows what happened there (2-6, 6-1, 0-6).

The point is with Halep, is that during her matches she opens up the odds something incredible. The way she starts poorly and grows into a match almost working her opponent out as she goes along has been something that I hope she continues.

A point of caution though. For me she has been first rate for months in a range of circumstances, but please bet on your own back! As mentioned this bubble may burst (although I hope it goes on forever) and so bet responsibly. It may be that this is just a purple patch of a lifetime, and for me, an edge of a lifetime.

Simona Halep does it AGAIN!! This girl is a punters dream and a top ten superstar.

Halep - a punters' wet dream!

On the 16th June 2013, I wrote this blog post - http://overtheodds.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/morning-thoughts-some-in-depth-halep.html. - in it I highlighted just why I thought Simona Halep would be a world top ten player within a year and why she went off the boil from her stunning early rise. I'm pleased to say I am STILL on track with my predictions.

For the past six months, Simona Halep has been a punters' wet dream. She was seen as little or no threat to the big girls for a long period of time after falling way down the rankings because of a combination of injury and natural physical development which hindered her game. On her way back, bookies and tipsters were still not convinced and it was an absolute pleasure taking her inflated odds each and every time she took the court. But even with recent tournament wins, even with some nice scalps, the bookies and tipsters are still undecided about her.....and it's to their cost.

I have made a personal killing on her over this last few months or so. The latest big money backings have come against Hsieh, Bartoli and Stosur; everyone's darling of the moment. Personally I have backed her with money ranging from £10 to £50, at these varying odds - 1.8, 1.77, 2.42, 2.0, 2.68, 3.35, 2.6, 1.89, 1.79 in these aforementioned matches. In short - she is a MONEY MAKER!

What makes her special in my opinion is the way she just 'works a match out'. I firmly believe she has the groundstrokes to beat anyone. Her serve can be wonky, but she's working hard on it and cites the serve as a favourite shot of hers. What makes her special from a punting point of view is her ability to win from behind, or work out her opponent very quickly if the tactics demand it. She is quite often a slow starter which means her odds get inflated even more by games 2/3 of the match.

She beat Hsieh from a set down to win the next two 6-1 6-2. She beat Bartoli from a set down to win 6-4 6-1. And yesterday was even more of an achievement beating Stosur after the Aussie had the momentum winning the 2nd set 6-4, to win the deciding set 6-2. She is absolute gold at the moment. Her starting price of 2.62 yesterday was miles off the chart. Yes Stosur has been in great form, but Halep has lost just 4 times in 30 matches!

Moreover, and apart from the silly betting joy that she brings to the table, is her shot at the big time which I think is a real possibility. I rate her, I really do. With her progress like this I'd even stick my neck on the line and say that she is the next big thing.

Halep, Federer rumour overdrive, chokers and State of Origin

My girl Simona Halep continues to power on beating Peterson in straight sets 6-4 6-0, which wouldn't have even covered the pre-match -8.5 games handicap. Indeed the bookies are so pathetic with regards to Halep at the moment that anything other than a double bagel and she loses on the handicap. The punters had their knickers in a twist today as Roger 'He's Finished' Federer lost the first set against Daniel Brands 6-3 to come back and win the next two. People, seriously, the guy is allowed to lose a set now again, it seriously isn't the end of the world.

Top, top, choker

Now for the chokers list today, and boy were there some contenders. I really can't be arsed to call tennis anymore as the level of performance from some tilts on the 'match fixing' side in the worst case and on a 'can't be arsed to be here' in a slightly better light. Robredo lost. Seppi (who is a SUPER CHOKER) lost. Monfils managed to be 4-2 up in the first before losing in straights. Klizan (ANOTHER SUPER CHOKER) lost. Gulbis (need I say ANYTHING about this choker) lost. A lot of these players mentioned here I have little or no respect for after recent events. Gulbis in particular is a shocker and should seriously be banned from the tour or something.

And Queensland won the State of Origin 3rd Game to win it 2-1. It was closer than I thought I have to be honest, I thought the Maroons would clear the +4.5 handicap line but in the end it was just by 2 points, 10-12.

Wimbledon Men's and Women's

Simona Halep v Li Na, 11am.
Halep, 2.92.

Fernando Verdasco v Julien Benneteau
Verdasco, 2.00.

Simona Halep v Kirsten Flipkens

Top Shelf Final, 11am.
Simona Halep, -3.5 games, 1.98.

To win Wimbledon Ladies E/W

Wimbledon Ladies
£20 E/W, Simona Halep, 325/1

Simona Halep v Carla Suarez Navarro

Top Shelf Open, 10am.
Simona Halep -2.5 games, 1.84.

Roberta Vinci v Simona Halep

Top Shelf Open, 3.30pm.
Simona Halep, 3.25.

Morning thoughts. Some in depth Halep analysis, Vekic and some in-play trades

Well what can you say about my girl Simona Halep. Backed at the start of the Nurnberg tournament at 7/1 she comes through it with flying colours as well as amassing me a nice profit in play through the tournament. I said it months ago.....this girl is going places. She burst onto the junior scene but regressed for a number of reasons. Playing against the top players, issues surrounding her breasts that she felt were restrictive on her game, and perhaps a dip in confidence at the highest level saw her slip down the rankings. But seemingly with all these things sorted, she is surging up the table.

"I said it months ago....this girl is going places"

Here's the Halep resurgence -

The problem Simona had after the dip in form was that a crash in rankings means much tougher games at each event in the early rounds. It wasn't that she was playing badly, just that she kept getting sickening draws against a whole host of top ten players. Without having the full facts with me now, she literally bumped into brilliant players in a whole series of tournaments. It's the catch 22, to get up the rankings you need a break, and she wasn't getting any.

Look from the 4th May though. I reckon Simona must have said enough is enough after losing to Schiavone and then Dominguez Lino. The only blots on the copy book have been a finals loss to Williams (and who wins those) and a disappointing first round Roland Garros loss to the very tricky Carla Suarez Navarro in which she took the first set. The seedings were very disappointing, and Halep couldn't have had a worse draw than the feisty Argentina who is a true match player. Halep would no doubt have gone further than Navarro, but it wasn't to be.

But this week Simona has shown her world class. She really has the game to get into the top ten and compete for tournament finals. A super effort lately, from a very talented young woman. Her ground strokes are magnificent, she can go long in rallies or be aggressive. She is young and can go the distance and she is working on the mental toughness when being down in tricky situations. She won the first set 6-3 against Safarova and lost the second set 6-0 before again turning the match on its head. It's these situations that Halep seems to be working out with each and every match. She's definitely on my betting radar with each and every match now.

Another one to watch is Donna Vekic. She is 16 and is already a handful. Today she plays in the Aegon Classic Final against Hantuchova and at 2.26, I may have a look at that. Even better perhaps is to wait in play, and see if Hantuchova serves first to eek out a couple more ticks. This match starts at 1pm, really looking forward to it.

Elsewhere, Federer is in a final against Youzhny and Murray plays Cilic in another. The only recommendation here is an in-player if either goes a set down. Even then, you may be risking it for a biscuit. 

There will be plenty of in-play football trades I'm sure, and England will be playing New Zealand in the cricket in a must win game. Weather may again be a factor here, so I reckon it's best to stay clear of this unless there is a clear profit making opening.

WTA Nurnberg - Simona Halep to win E/W

I was extremely disappointed that Halep went out in the first round of the French Open. I really do think the organisers botched the rankings up something quite badly. Halep was a form horse going into the event, but she drew Carla Suarez Novarro the Argentine veteran who ran out a winner in 3 sets.  Although Novarro is a tremendous match player, Halep had more potential to go further in the competition. She needs more pressure envorinments to get her game somewhere near where she was when she burst onto the junior scene. This week is a perfect opportunity to win this event, with Jankovic being the other woman in her way. Jankovic-Halep final? It could be.

Simona Halep to win WTA Nurnberg E/W (7.00)

Simona Halep v Carla Suarez Novarro

French Open, 10am.
Quite simply, I fancy Halep to go far in this tournament. She has the form and the self belief to do it it's just a question of whether she can up where she currently is to the next level, and this means beating tricky opponents like Novarro early doors in tournaments. This really shouldn't be a round one clash as both players are very good. Halep's ranking is way below where her ability lies mainly due to a huge first round run which has included on a regular basis, top ten opponents. It's catch 22, but she needs to beat these women to have easier draws going forward.

Suarez Novarro is a very competent player who knows her game inside out. She'll battle to the end and although I feel she is more limited than Halep she has the experience. One thing that may go in Halep's favour though is youth; if Halep can drag the match along then I think Novarro may tire from around the halfway point of the first set. Halep at 2.00.

Simona loves the Pit Exchange :)

Simona Halep defeats Jelena Jankovic

Live Tennis (@livetennis) tweeted at 7:05 PM on Fri, May 17, 2013: Earlier today we saw Simona Halep's remarkable run continue! She saved match pts to take down Jelena Jankovic http://t.co/gyhz519g9b (https://twitter.com/livetennis/status/335456161543364610) Get the official Twitter app at https://twitter.com/download

Simona Halep v Jelena Jankovic (Bet 13)

WON
WTA Rome, @2pm.
£20, Simona Halep, 2.38 (MarathonBet)

Halep's recent surge in form has been nothing short of remarkable. She beat Radwanska, and then yesterday beat Vinci, two very impressive scalps. She has a good first serve, good solid ground strokes, can vary the tempo of the game and doesn't seem to miss much. I really do think that this is a key match for her, can she make the step up from being comfortable early in tournaments to being a big name under the spotlight?

Jankovic dismantled Li Na in epic style yesterday, but Na was truly atrocious. And by atrocious, I mean truly, truly atrocious. I think it was something like 60 odd unforced errors and she really did struggle to keep the ball in the court. Jankovic is good, don't get me wrong, but Halep has the staying power, resilience and youth on her side to go the distance in any match. Halep I believe, also has that 'bottle' factor that I look for when betting. She will never give up. I am really looking forward to this match.