General insight

Was going to wrote an article myself today but Value Bets has put a timely one out which coves most things, so grateful for that.

We basically escaped the weekend with minimum damage which at one point could have been a nasty one. Please keep in perspective that even the perceived 'nasty ones' (and I'm talking about -10/-15u swings) can happen in betting and will happen in betting. If you were unsure of this before please be sure of this now - purely a numbers game. So it's of vital importance then when you analyse anything, you analyse in batches of 100 bets a time especially with regards to systems like the high odds and value plays. The margins in gambling between winning days and losing days are often very very fine. It's skill and it's luck.

With all that said the team are still in an unbelievable run through June. Hopefully we get another solid week...let's see what the gambling gods have in store for us! GL

Tennis injuries, West Tigers/New Zealand Warriors, Ashes and Euro Qualifying.

Tennis is becoming harder and harder to bet on and more frustrating day by day. As well as my usual gripe of top 'professionals' not taking many tournaments seriously you have to add to the mix that a fair few matches will be fixed anyway. I have been watching some Challenger stuff lately, and to say the appetite for the game drains from a competitor from very early on in the piece would be an understatement. You can expect it from these I suppose, but when you cannot trust a fully fledged ATP Main Tour player to give 100% every match, then alarm bells start ringing.

Yesterday Janowicz decided he'd had enough after losing the first set to Verdasco (after lumping on Verdasco). Simona Halep also had a grievance, a hip injury it was first thought, and fair play to her she has had a gruelling schedule and may need to take some further time off. But I do think her match with Penetta would have been interesting. The match was into a third set and it seemed like it was poised slightly in the underdog's favour. I'm not saying for one bit that Halep bailed out, but in other circumstances athletes do, to avoid the red face of an exit. This is pathetic. And don't even get me started on Prakash Amritraj who just basically fucked off after losing the first set the other day.

Meanwhile there is going to be interest in the Wests-Warriors NRL match today as Benji Marshall laid out that he wants to leave League for Union. I'm going for a Wests +4.5er at around the 1.84 mark. This seems quite generous given that they have won their last 3 home games on the bounce (including a crushing defeat of Melbourne Storm).

I also jumped on the Australians in the 2nd Test. Currently 3.55 after Matt Prior departed, they could wrap up the innings in double quick time this morning and then hopefully bat long and big. England will then have the problem of the day four/five wicket, and if Smith can continue his glorious gift of getting England batsmen out, along with Aggar, then it could be tricky for England.

And more pitfalls of betting I'm afraid, this time with Utrecht losing to Differdange of Luxemburg. Every man and his dog bet on Utrecht in some form or another. I went in for BTTS which flew in, with Differdange actually winning the game 2-1 on the night. See the article below for a LOL at ONE tipster.....this was genuine lolz stuff and proves that one punters view is different from another. I saw this as Differdange failing to score just once at home in the calendar year 2013, whereas he gave them no chance to score...and probably did lay in the end.

Morning thoughts. Some in depth Halep analysis, Vekic and some in-play trades

Well what can you say about my girl Simona Halep. Backed at the start of the Nurnberg tournament at 7/1 she comes through it with flying colours as well as amassing me a nice profit in play through the tournament. I said it months ago.....this girl is going places. She burst onto the junior scene but regressed for a number of reasons. Playing against the top players, issues surrounding her breasts that she felt were restrictive on her game, and perhaps a dip in confidence at the highest level saw her slip down the rankings. But seemingly with all these things sorted, she is surging up the table.

"I said it months ago....this girl is going places"

Here's the Halep resurgence -

The problem Simona had after the dip in form was that a crash in rankings means much tougher games at each event in the early rounds. It wasn't that she was playing badly, just that she kept getting sickening draws against a whole host of top ten players. Without having the full facts with me now, she literally bumped into brilliant players in a whole series of tournaments. It's the catch 22, to get up the rankings you need a break, and she wasn't getting any.

Look from the 4th May though. I reckon Simona must have said enough is enough after losing to Schiavone and then Dominguez Lino. The only blots on the copy book have been a finals loss to Williams (and who wins those) and a disappointing first round Roland Garros loss to the very tricky Carla Suarez Navarro in which she took the first set. The seedings were very disappointing, and Halep couldn't have had a worse draw than the feisty Argentina who is a true match player. Halep would no doubt have gone further than Navarro, but it wasn't to be.

But this week Simona has shown her world class. She really has the game to get into the top ten and compete for tournament finals. A super effort lately, from a very talented young woman. Her ground strokes are magnificent, she can go long in rallies or be aggressive. She is young and can go the distance and she is working on the mental toughness when being down in tricky situations. She won the first set 6-3 against Safarova and lost the second set 6-0 before again turning the match on its head. It's these situations that Halep seems to be working out with each and every match. She's definitely on my betting radar with each and every match now.

Another one to watch is Donna Vekic. She is 16 and is already a handful. Today she plays in the Aegon Classic Final against Hantuchova and at 2.26, I may have a look at that. Even better perhaps is to wait in play, and see if Hantuchova serves first to eek out a couple more ticks. This match starts at 1pm, really looking forward to it.

Elsewhere, Federer is in a final against Youzhny and Murray plays Cilic in another. The only recommendation here is an in-player if either goes a set down. Even then, you may be risking it for a biscuit. 

There will be plenty of in-play football trades I'm sure, and England will be playing New Zealand in the cricket in a must win game. Weather may again be a factor here, so I reckon it's best to stay clear of this unless there is a clear profit making opening.