Experiment time

French Ligue 2 experiment tonight, let's have a look.

 These are the fixtures tonight. By a home v home goal ratio this is what the predictions are -

Game 1 - Draw. £10 @ 3.20
Game 2 - Draw. £10 @ 3.20
Game 3 - Home. No bet, odds are 1.5
Game 4 - Home. £10 @ 2.50
Game 5 - Home. No bet, odds are 1.5
Game 6 - Draw. £10 @ 3.40
Game 7 - Draw. £10 @ 3.25
Game 8 - Home. £10 @ 2.20

The goal ratio probability for the games are as follows, home team positive, away team edge negative
0.23, 0.16, 1.24, 0.77, 0.89, 0.42, 0.35, 0.94.

Bets of the night would be the two home games in bold. This would represent home team advantage at over evens, with a +0.77 goal expectation (home side) and +0.94.

Let's wait for the results.

I like these games - Energiya 1-1 Torpedo Moscow

These are the type of games that I need to start focusing on. Prior to this game both teams had a win-draw-loss score of 2-1-2, and with the plus one handicap for Torpedo this seemed great value at evens. I had some success with backing the underdog on AH before, and I think it's a tactic that I need to look into again. I think I've going to continue basing my theory on the last five games and that the backer has to have an equal or better record than the opposition. This could be in the AH if the underdog is statistically inferior or on the DNB if you're backing an away side team higher placed in the league.

Another incredible night of research, just pissed off I didn't keep the faith

Last night saw a hugely frustrating night in which I buckled and looked for the stats and form instead of my underdog AH line.

ALL games, apart from Villa-Sunderland had a handicap of +0.5 as a MINIMUM. Even Maritimo losing by a goal to Benfica would have covered +1.5. Absolutely gutting stuff. I buckled under the pressure after a run of six games without success last week, even though I had pocketed £300 and was looking good in the next round of fixtures.

I have to remember that these runs MUST be taken on the chin and that it only INCREASES the likelihood of a positive runs of results/streak.

Massive lesson learned.

From now on I'm not looking at a single stat. It's all backing the underdog, minimum +0.5, at over evens.

Hmm.....

After a highly unsuccessful night I'm going back to my underdog AH line.



These are my selections that should take me up til around 6.30pm tomorrow. Let's see what we see!

Winnings pocketed and a further experiement carries on

So my new strategy of backing the underdog with the AH paid off of in the main. £300 has been pocketed and the experiment will continue today with four open bets of ten pound each. This account will now be untouched as I aim to either wipe myself back to 0 or to see it grow continually. Either way my short term theory has paid off, quite how this will pan out the longer I leave the experiment run is anybodies guess.

So, I'm hoping for four wins out of four at £10 each, and then 8 bets of £10 and so and and so forth. Once the amount gets to around £200 (if I don't get wiped out) then I'll up the stakes to £20 per bet.

Fingers crossed.

Research